基于云物元理论的装配式建筑供应链风险预警

Risk Early Warning of Prefabricated Building Supply Chain Based on Cloud Matter Element Theory

与传统建筑供应链相比,装配式建筑供应链参与企业众多,其供应链网络结构更加复杂,具有更大的不确定性。为了提高装配式建筑供应链风险防控能力,亟需建立一种能为管理者提供决策依据的风险预警系统。首先根据装配式建筑的特点构建了定性和定量相结合的装配式建筑供应链风险预警指标体系,采用主观赋权法G1法和客观赋权法熵权法确定指标的综合权重,并基于云物元理论构建了风险预警模型。然后计算预警指标值与风险预警等级的关联度,根据最大隶属度准则确定装配式建筑供应链风险预警等级。并将风险预警模型应用到某装配式建筑项目的供应链风险管理实践中,研究结果表明,该模型可以对装配式建筑供应链的关键风险因素进行有效预警,从而为管理者有针对性地制定风险防控措施提供决策参考。

Compared with the traditional building supply chain,there are many enterprises participating in the prefabricated building supply chain,whose supply chain network structure is more complicated and has greater uncertainty. In order to improve its risk prevention and control capabilities,it is urgent to establish a risk early warning system that can provide decision-making basis for managers.Firstly,according to the characteristics of prefabricated buildings,a risk early warning index system of prefabricated building supply chain is constructed,which combines qualitative and quantitative methods. The comprehensive weight of the index is determined by subjective weight method of G1 method and objective weight method of entropy weight method,and the risk early warning model is constructed based on cloud matter element theory. Then the correlation degree between the early warning index value and the risk early warning level is calculated,and the risk early warning level of the prefabricated building supply chain is determined according to the maximum membership degree criterion. The risk early warning model is applied to the supply chain risk management practice of an prefabricated building project. The research results show that the model can effectively predict the key risk factors of the prefabricated building supply chain,so as to provide decision-making reference for managers to formulate targeted risk prevention and control measures.