中国气候变化影响、风险与适应研究新进展

Progress on the impact,risk and adaptation of climate change in China

本文基于气候变化影响与适应领域的研究,重点聚焦国家第三次气候变化评估报告发布以来的最新成果,从全国尺度评估气候变化对我国社会经济可持续发展重点领域的影响,揭示气候变化对各重点领域影响的时空格局及区域差异,预估未来气候变化风险,为国家应对气候变化宏观政策制定和促进社会经济可持续发展提供科技支撑。本文评估了重点领域的影响和风险、重大工程和脆弱区的影响和风险、综合风险与适应三个方面,分析了气候变化对农业、水资源、海洋与海岸带、自然生态系统、人体健康和环境、重大工程、脆弱区的影响与风险及区域综合风险和适应的最新研究进展。气候变暖在改变区域水热资源分配的同时,对农业、水资源、海洋与海岸带、人体健康等相关敏感领域和区域产生了十分明显影响,并且将在未来进一步加剧这些领域和区域的风险,特别是农牧交错带和黄土高原风险较为突出,同时气候变化将对青藏铁路、南水北调等重大工程产生不利影响。我国在适应气候变化领域战略研究和实践上有了长足的进步,提出了有序适应气候变化的理念并设计了实施路线图,但是在综合风险和适应领域的研究整体上还比较薄弱,综合风险和适应研究仍无法有效支撑气候变化应对工作。气候变化在某种程度上带来气候资源,对自然系统和社会经济的负面影响明显。研究再次表明,气候变化利弊共存,总体上弊大于利。

By evaluating the impact of climate change on the sensitive sectors of social and economic sustainable development in China on a national scale,this study reveals the spatio-temporal pattern and regional differences of the impact of climate change on sensitive sectors,and estimates the risk of climate change in the future,in an effort to provide scientific and technological support for making national macro policies to deal with climate change and promoting sustainable socio-economic development.This paper evaluated the impact and risk of sensitive sectors,the impact and risk of major projects and vulnerable areas,as well as the integrated risk and adaptation.Besides,the recent studies of climate change on agriculture,water resources,ocean and coastal zone,natural ecosystem,human health and environment,major projects,vulnerable regions and the adaptations of regional integrated risks was analyzed.Climate warming not only changes the distribution of regional water and heat resources allocation,but also aggravates the risks in the fields of agriculture,water resources,ocean and coastal zone and human health,especially in the agro-pastoral ecotone and the Loess Plateau.Moreover,it would induce an adverse impact on major projects such as the Qinghai-Tibet Railway and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.However,the research on integrated risk and adaptation in China remain relatively weak,which is still unable to effectively support for addressing climate change.To some extent,climate change brings climate resources and it has obvious impacts on the ecosystem and social economy.Importantly,this study again confirmed that the advantages and disadvantages of climate change coexist,with the disadvantages outweighing the advantages.