国际航空碳抵消协议对不同国家的影响分析

Analysis of the impact of Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation on different countries

基于国际民航组织成员国所有航班的实际飞行轨迹全样本数据库的航空数据计算了各国的实际航空碳排放,建立了各国航空周转量预测模型,预测了各国的国际航空碳排放量,最后根据国际航空碳抵消协议(CORSIA)方案设置了三种情景,分析得到各情景下各国直到2035年的碳抵消量,从而分析了这一结果对各个国家的影响。主要结论如下:①2018年全球的航空碳排放总量为7.95亿t,约占全球能源相关碳排放的2.6%。其中,国际航空碳排放总量达到了5.04亿t,约占总排放量的63.4%。②预测显示全球航空碳排放还有很大的增长空间,因此,航空碳排放是全球排放的重要来源,也是未来减排的重点领域。但各国航空碳排放的增长趋势呈现出很大的不同,中国、卡塔尔、土耳其和俄罗斯等发展中国家的航空业正处在快速增长的轨道上,而美国、英国、德国、韩国和法国等发达国家的航空业增长趋势相对缓慢,甚至接近饱和。③CORSIA抵消方案带给发展中国家更多的抵消成本负担。虽然CORSIA从行业到个体过渡的设定表面上看考虑到了发展中国家的过渡期,但是发展中国家在CORSIA计划下面临的抵消压力要始终高于发达国家。④CORSIA方案中抵消量基于增量的本质缺陷,决定了发展中国家面临比发达国家更为严峻的压力和挑战,这对于发展中国家来说是不公平的。这一机制将影响航空业的正常竞争,不利于全球航空业的发展,也不利于航空业支持和带动全球和地区经济的发展。

Based on the ADSB aviation data,this paper calculates the actual aviation carbon emissions of each country,establishes the prediction model of aviation turnover of each country,and forecasts the international aviation carbon emissions of each country.Finally,according to CORSIA,three scenarios are set up to analyze the carbon offsets of each country up to 2035,so as to analyze the impact of the offsets on each country.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:①In 2018,the total global aviation carbon emissions were 795 million tons,accounting for about 2.6%of global energy related carbon emissions.Among them,the amount of international aviation carbon emissions reached 504 million tons,accounting for 63.4%of the total aviation emissions.②The prediction of international aviation carbon emissions shows that there is still a lot of room for growth in the global aviation industry.Therefore,aviation carbon emissions are an important source of global emissions and a key area of future emission reduction.However,the growth trend of aviation carbon emissions in various countries is quite different.The aviation industry of developing countries such as China,Qatar,Turkey and Russia is on the track of rapid growth,while that of developed countries such as the United States,Great Britain,Germany,South Korea and France is relatively slow,even close to saturation.③CORSIA brings more offsetting cost burden to developing countries.Although the transition from industry to individual seems to consider the transition period of developing countries,the offsetting pressure that developing countries face under CORSIA is always higher than that of developed countries.④In CORSIA,the essential defect of the offset based on increment determines that developing countries will face more severe pressure than developed countries,which is unfair to developing countries.Due to the negative impact of competition in the aviation industry,this mechanism will not only hinder the development of the aviation industry,but also affect the aviation industry's support for the global and regional economy.