“十四五”时期人口相关经济社会政策的思考与建议

Suggestions on population-related economic and social policies during the 14th Five-year Plan period

人口是一个国家国力的重要支撑,也是国家战略规划最重要的基数。“十四五”时期是中国调整优化人口相关政策、巩固壮大经济社会高质量发展新动能的重要阶段。本文对“十四五”规划人口及家庭相关经济社会政策提出五条建议:一是警惕“超低生育陷阱”,实施生、育、教多方面的政策“组合拳”,鼓励更多人生育二孩,让生育决策回归家庭,着力建设“生育友好”型社会。二是加强多支柱的养老保障,使家庭成为养老第一支柱,鼓励更多市场主体提供高质量养老产品和服务,强化政府兜底保障与制度供给职能,让全体老年人“老有所依”,加大老年人力资源开发与就业保障,让更多老年人“老有所为”。三是完善以人为核心的城镇化,推进“居住证+基本公共服务和户籍政策(差别化落户)改革”的农民工市民化“二维路径”,完善农民工市民化成本分摊机制,让迁徙决策回归家庭,鼓励家庭化迁移。坚持优化城市群与培育新生中小城市“两条腿”走路,着力使未来城市总数达到一千座,推动中国城市体系的规模结构与空间分布不断优化。四是提高人口质量,改革完善学校教育与职业培训体系,加速“人口大国”向“人力资源强国”和“人才强国”转变,优化技术技能型人才与高端科研人才的培养模式,建立与第四次工业革命需求相协调适应的劳动力供给结构,推进劳动力要素市场改革,实施中等收入群体倍增计划。五是推进公共卫生体系的硬件与软件建设,解决疫情暴露的公共卫生治理“赤字”,健全数字化公共卫生基础设施体系与公共卫生科研攻关体系,新冠病毒肺炎疫苗和药物研制应充分考虑人口性别差异,积极探索以家庭为单位投保的医保制度改革。家庭是人口相关经济社会现象与问题的微观基础,本文认为还要进一步完善支持现代家庭发展的政策体系,扩展与延续家庭代际支持功能。

Population is an important support of a country's power and the most significant base of national strategic planning.The period of the 14th Five-year Plan is an important stage for China to adjust and optimize its policies and consolidate the new drivers of high-quality economic and social development.This article puts forward five suggestions on the economic and social policies related to population and family for the 14th Five-year Plan.Firstly,it is important to remain vigilant about the'ultra-low fertility trap'and to implement combined policies on procreation,parenting and education,so that more people will be encouraged to have a second child.It is also important to give the fertility decision back to the family,and strive to build a'fertility-friendly'society.Secondly,multi¬pillar old-age security system should be strengthened with the family being the most critical pillar.At the same time,there should be more market players encouraged to provide high-quality old-age care products and services.For the government,enhanced efibrts should be made to guarantee the basic living standard for people unable to work and the institutional supply functions need strengthening,so that all the elderly will get supports.Human resource development of the elderly should be promoted and relevant employment should also be guaranteed,so that more elderly people have a sense of worthiness.Thirdly,a people-oriented,new type of urbanization should be promoted.Such a two-dimensional path of citizenization of migrant workers in the reform of'residence permit+basic public services and household registration policy(differential settlement)'should be promoted.The cost-sharing mechanism for ensuring migrant workers to become urban citizens should be improved.Migration decisions should be given back to their families to encourage family-based migration.Then,efforts must be made in both optimizing urban agglomeration and cultivating new small and medium-sized cities,so that the total number of cities can reach 1000,which is conducive to the promotion of the continuous optimization of the scale structure and spatial distribution of the Chinese urban system in the future.Fourthly,it is essential to improve the population quality.School education and vocational training system need to be reformed,and the training mode of high-level technical talents and research talents should be optimized.The transformation of China from a country with a large population to one with strong human resources and talents should be accelerated.A labor supply system compatible with the needs of the fourth industrial revolution should be established.More efibrts should be made to promote the labor market reform.The plan of doubling the number of middle-income groups should be implemented.Fifthly,the public health system should be improved.It is important to advance the hardware and software construction to solve the public health governance'deficit'exposed during the COVID-19 epidemic.It is necessary to improve the digital public health infrastructure system and the public health scientific research system.Gender d^erences should be fully considered in vaccine and drug development against COVID-19.The reform of the medical insurance system with family as the unit of insurance should also be actively explored.This article believes that family is the micro-foundation of population-related economic and social phenomena and problems.It is necessary to further improve the policy system to support the development of modern families and expand the intergenerational family support function.