海洋碳汇渔业绿色发展经济外溢效应评价研究

Evaluation of economic spillover effect of green development of marine carbon sink fishery

发展海洋碳汇渔业是中国大陆沿海地区落实绿色发展理念、建设海洋生态文明、实现海洋渔业经济高质量增长的物质基础。文章以中国大陆沿海11个省(市、自治区)海洋渔业经济指标为依据,尝试理清碳汇渔业绿色发展与海洋渔业经济增长两者之间的内在关系,科学探讨碳汇渔业绿色发展对海洋渔业经济高质量发展的影响机制,为推进碳汇渔业绿色发展和促进海洋渔业可持续发展提供理论依据。首先将海洋渔业分为碳汇渔业部门和非碳汇渔业部门,运用改进的菲德(Feder)模型测算中国海洋碳汇渔业的产业内经济外溢效应;同时根据海洋渔业产业链之间的关系,应用柯布道格拉斯生产函数构造碳汇渔业对其上游产业(水产苗种业)和下游产业(水产品加工业)的产业间经济外溢效应模型。实证结果表明,海洋碳汇渔业对海洋渔业经济的外溢效应参数为6.42,但碳汇渔业部门的要素边际生产率小于非碳汇渔业部门,只相当于非碳汇渔业部门的16%,这在很大程度上抵消了碳汇渔业部门对海洋渔业经济的总贡献度;在海洋渔业产业链中,碳汇渔业对上游水产苗种业的后向外溢效应系数为24.69,高于其对下游水产品加工业的前向外溢效应系数7.77。研究结论认为,碳汇渔业的经济外溢效应是“立体”的,不仅存在产业内的水平经济外溢效应,还存在产业间的垂直外溢效应。因此,秉承绿色发展理念,在海洋渔业产业结构的调整过程中,优先发展碳汇渔业,将碳汇渔业产品确立为海洋渔业的主导产品能有效地拉动海洋渔业经济的增长,并能带动海洋渔业上下游相关产业的发展。

The development of marine carbon sink fishery is the material basis for the implementation of the concept of green development,the construction of marine ecological civilization and the high-quality growth of marine fishery economy in the coastal areas of China's Mainland.Based on the marine fishery economic indicators of the 11 provinces along the coast of China's Mainland,this paper attempts to clarify the internal relationship between the green development of carbon sink fishery and the economic growth of marine fishery and to scientifically discuss the impact mechanism of the green development of carbon sink fishery on the high-quality development of marine fishery economy,in order to provide a theoretical basis for the promotion of the green development of carbon sink fishery and marine fishery sustainable development.Firstly,marine fishery is divided into two parts:carbon sink fishery and non¬carbon sink fishery.The improved Feder model is used to calculate the intra-industry economic spillover Meet of China's marine carbon sink fishery.At the same time,according to the relationship between the factors in the marine fishery industry chain,the Cobb Douglas production function is used to construct a model of an inter-industrial economic spillover effect to learn the Meet of carbon sink fishery on its upstream industry(aquatic seedling industry)and downstream industry(aquatic product processing industry).The results of this empirical study show that the spillover Meet parameter of marine carbon sink fishery on marine fishery economy is 6.42.The marginal productivity of the carbon sink fishery sector is less than that of the non-carbon sink fishery sector.The value of carbon sink fishery sector is only 16%of that of the non-carbon sink fishery sector.This result largely onsets the total contribution of carbon sink fishery sector to marine fishery economy.In the marine fishery industry chain,carbon sink fishery plays an important role in its upstream industry.The backward spillover Meet coefficient of the aquatic seedling industry is 24.69,which is higher than the forward spillover effect coefiicient of downstream aquatic products processing industry.The conclusion is that the economic spillover efi^ct of carbon sink fishery is‘three-dimensional’,not only existing in the horizontal economic spillover effect within the industry,but also in the vertical spillover Meet between industries.Therefore,adhering to the concept of green development,in the process of adjusting the industrial structure of marine fishery,priority should be given to the development of carbon sink fishery.Establishing carbon sink fishery products as the leading products of marine fishery can electively promote the economic growth of marine fishery and the development of related upstream and downstream industries of marine fishery.