2015—2018年深圳市南山区脑卒中死亡状况及早死概率分析

Analysis of stroke death and early death probability in Nanshan district of Shenzhen from 2015 to 2018

目的分析2015—2018年深圳市南山区脑卒中死亡情况和早死概率,并对"健康中国2030"规划中脑卒中早死概率的目标进行评估,为加强脑卒中综合防控工作提供依据。方法2015—2018年深圳市南山区脑卒中的死亡数据来自深圳市脑卒中和死因监测系统。采用国际疾病分类第10版(ICD-10)标准对脑卒中进行分类,包括出血性脑卒中、缺血性脑卒中和未分型脑卒中。采用R软件V 3.5.1计算脑卒中死亡率、标化死亡率和早死概率,死亡率的组间比较采用χ2检验,变化趋势分析采用Cochran-Armitage检验,早死概率的变化趋势采用线性回归分析,并计算年度变化百分比(APC)。结果2015—2018年南山区常住人口脑卒中死亡率为10.39/10万~12.83/10万,标化死亡率为44.36/10万~54.37/10万,早死概率为1.22%~1.64%,死亡率和早死概率变化趋势均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。南山区2020和2030年脑卒中早死概率控制目标分别为1.10%和0.85%之内,以2018年为基线值,早死概率分别要下降0.35个百分点和0.60个百分点。结论2015—2018年南山区脑卒中死亡率与早死概率相对较低,无明显变化趋势,各部门应加强脑卒中综合防控工作,早日实现"健康中国2030"规划目标。

Objective To analyze the mortality and early death probability of stroke in residents of Nanshan district of Shenzhen from 2015 to 2018,to evaluate the goal of early death probability of stroke in"healthy China 2030",and to provide the basis for strengthening the comprehensive prevention and control of stroke.Methods The death data of stroke in Nanshan district of Shenzhen from 2015 to 2018 were from"Surveillance system of brain stroke and cause of death in Shenzhen".The International Classification of Diseases 10 th Edition(ICD-10)was used to classify stroke,including hemorrhagic stroke,ischemic stroke and non-classified stroke.R software V3.5.1 was used to calculate the mortality,standardized mortality and early death probability of stroke.Chi-square test was used to compare the differences of mortality among groups,Cochran Armitage test was used to analyze the change trend,linear regression analysis was used to analyze the change trend of early death probability,and the annual change percentage(APC)was calculated.Results From 2015 to 2018,the mortality of stroke was 10.39/105-12.83/105,and the standardized mortality was 44.36/105-54.37/105,the early death probability was 1.22%-1.64%without significant change trend(P>0.05).The control target of early death probability of stroke in Nanshan District in 2020 and 2030 should be within 1.10%and0.85%,respectively.As compared with 2018,the early death probability decreased 0.35 percentage point and 0.60 percentage point,respectively.Conclusion The mortality and early death probability of stroke in Nanshan District from 2015 to 2018 were lower without significant change trend,all departments should strengthen the comprehensive prevention and control of stroke,and achieve the goal of healthy China 2030 plan as soon as possible.