中心城市科技创新对城市群结构体系的影响

Research on the Impact of Technological Innovation in Central Cities on the Structural System of Urban Agglomeration

本文基于历史-地理唯物主义时空修复理论与演化经济地理理论,将科技创新的内生性与外部性纳入统一的理论机制中,提出中心城市科技创新会对城市群结构体系呈现U型作用关系。通过双向固定效应非线性估计考察中心城市科技创新对城市群结构体系的影响关系,创新性地由历史维度工具变量(中国历史官员量化数据、中国古代城市城墙数据)对中心城市科技创新展开内生性检验识别,并运用门槛效应模型对中心城市科技创新的结构变化点进行探寻。结果表明:①中心城市科技创新对城市群经济等级结构呈现出U型作用,对城市群首位度呈现出倒U型作用,表明中心城市对城市群结构体系的变化呈现出先集聚再扩散的演化逻辑;②中心城市科技创新与城市群结构体系之间呈现U型结构关系,以发明专利申请数量识别中心城市科技创新动态影响变化点的阈值范围为13158项发明专利申请。

Based on the historical-geographical materialistic space-time restoration theory and evolutionary economic geography theory,the endogenous and externalities of scientific and technological innovation are integrated into a unified theoretical mechanism,and it is proposed that technological innovation in central cities has a U-shaped effect on urban agglomeration structurae systems.The research examines the impact of technological innovation in central cities on urban agglomeration structure system through non-linear estimation of two-way fixed effects,and innovates the endogenous examination and identification of technological innovation in central cities by using historical dimension tool variables(quantitative data from Chinese historical officials and data on ancient Chinese city walls),and then uses the threshold effect model to explore the structural change points of technological innovation in central cities.The research finds that:First,the technological innovation of the central city has a U-shaped effect on the economic hierarchy of the urban agglomeration,and the technological innovation of the central city has an inverted U-shaped effect on the first place of the urban agglomeration,indicating that the central city has a first change in the structural system of urban agglomeration,that is evolutionary logic from agglomeration to diffusion.Second,there is a U-shaped relationship between the technological innovation of the central city and the urban agglomeration structure system.The threshold range for identifying the change points of the dynamic impact of technological innovation in the central city by the number of invention patent applications is 13,158 invention patent applications.