面向2030年的中国城镇化及其区域差异态势分析

An Analysis of China's Urbanization and its Regional Differences towards 2030

2019年中国的城镇化水平已达到60.6%,城镇化迈入了中后期的发展阶段。城镇化水平的进一步提高不仅会对经济、社会的发展产生正向推动作用,还会深刻影响中国区域经济的空间格局。结合国内外城镇化发展经验以及中国改革开放以来城镇化水平时间序列数据的预测分析结果可以判断,中国城镇化发展过程符合诺瑟姆曲线所呈现出的规律,预计到2030年,中国的城镇化水平可达到70%。受经济发展水平、产业结构的区域变化影响,中国城镇化的空间格局已由过去的“北高南低”转变为“东高西低”,四大区域的城镇化水平位次也将产生变化。同时,各个省份的城镇化相对水平在不断收敛,但绝对水平仍在扩大。这一趋势使得未来中国将面临人口过疏和过密的双重挑战,因此应优化城市空间格局、提高城市资源的配置能力和综合承载力。

China's urbanization level has reached 60.6%by 2019,when it has developed into the middle and later stage.The further improvement of urbanization level will not only have a positive effect on economic and social development,but also profoundly affect the spatial pattern of China's regional economy.Based on the experience of urbanization development at home and abroad,and the analysis of China's urbanization time series data since the reform and opening up,it can be concluded that China's urbanization development conforms to the law presented by Northam Curve.The urbanization rate can reach 70%by 2030.Affected by the regional changes in economic development level and industrial structure,the spatial pattern of urbanization in China has changed from“high in the north and low in the south”to“high in the east and low in the west”.The level of urbanization in the four regions will also change.At the same time,the relative level of urbanization in the provinces is converging and the absolute level is expanding.This trend leads China to the dual challenges of“too thin”and“too dense”population in the future.Accordingly,we should optimize the urban spatial pattern,as well as improve the allocation capacity of urban resources and the comprehensive carrying capacity to deal with this problem.