有意之为还是无奈之举——经济政策不确定性下的企业“脱实向虚”

Active Participation or Passive Choice:Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Financialization

近年来,我国微观企业的“脱实向虚”引起了学术界广泛关注。本文以2007—2019年非金融类上市公司为样本,实证考察了经济政策不确定性对企业“脱实向虚”的影响。研究发现:(1)从整体上来看,经济政策不确定性的上升显著提高了企业“脱实向虚”程度。(2)异质性分析表明,经济政策不确定性的上升对地方国有企业和非国有企业“脱实向虚”的作用较为明显,但并未对中央国有企业产生显著影响。同时,市场化程度越高的地区,经济政策不确定性对企业“脱实向虚”的助推作用越大。(3)与现有研究普遍认为的企业“脱实向虚”是基于“蓄水池”动机和利润追逐动机不同,本文发现,企业“脱实向虚”程度的提升主要是由于经济政策不确定性显著抑制了企业实体投资,造成了企业对金融资产的被动持有。这也进一步说明了在经济政策不确定性视角下,实体投资率的下滑并非是源于企业“脱实向虚”的挤出作用。恰恰相反,“脱实向虚”才是企业在实体投资受到抑制下的无奈之举。本文的研究为政府如何引导经济“脱虚向实”,并在微观企业层面防范和化解系统性金融风险提供了可能的方向指引。

In recent years,China's enterprises have attracted a lot of attention from academia.This paper takes the non-financial listed companies in 2007-2019 as a sample,and empirically examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the corporate financialization.The main conclusions are as follows:,(1)the rising uncertainty of economic policy promotes the enterprise“from reality to emptiness”.Considering the endogenous problem and the measurement error of economic policy uncertainty,the result is still valid.,(2)the results of heterogeneous regression show that the rise of economic policy uncertainty has significantly improved corporate financialization,at the same time,there is no significant difference between local enterprises and private enterprises.From the perspective of marketization,the effect of economic policy uncertainty on corporate financialization is greater for firms with higher degrees of marketization.,(3)the results of transmission mechanism show that,different from the current research,which generally believes that the corporate financialization is based on the“reservoir”motivation and profit pursuit motivation,financialization is the passive choice of enterprises to deal with the uncertainty and delay the real operation and investment.This further shows that under the uncertainty of economic policy,the decline of corporate real investment rate is not due to the financialization crowding-out effect.The study of this paper provides a possible direction for the government to guide the economy to“from the virtual to the real”and to prevent and defuse the systemic financial risks at the micro-enterprise level.The study of this paper provides the possible direction for the government to help the development of real economy and further guide the economy from the virtual to the real.Based on the conclusion of this paper,in the view of economic policy uncertainty,if we want to promote the development of real economy,further guide the economy“from the virtual to the real”,and guard against financial risks,we must first vigorously promote the vitality of real economy.It is far from enough to prevent the“deficiency”of enterprises,we should pay more attention to the“deficiency”of enterprises and put more emphasis on stimulating the growth of real economy.When the growth of real economy is strong and the prospect of real investment is clear,enterprises will tend to invest more in real projects.At the same time,the problem of“from the real to the virtual”will be naturally alleviated,and the financial risk will be restrained.Therefore,the state should further streamline administration and delegate powers,reduce the burden on enterprises,and implement innovation-driven to transform development momentum.In addition,we should improve the financial service system to support the real economy,irrigate the real economy with financial water,and realize the coordinated development between finance and the real economy.The second is to stabilise corporate and macroeconomic expectations.In view of the major changes in the external environment,the most important thing is to adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability,and effectively stabilize market expectations.Therefore,the central government should strive to maintain the continuity and stability of macro-policies,enhance the forward-looking and targeted nature,speed up the efficiency of policy implementation,strengthen financing guarantee,strengthen the guidance of capital market expectations,and create a stable external environment for the development of enterprises,giving businesses confidence.Finally,we should continue to promote market-oriented development and reform of the economic system.China is in a crucial period of economic transformation and upgrading and rejuvenation.Only by combining the socialist system with the market economy can we constantly emancipate and develop the remarkable advantages of the social productive forces.As stressed in the report of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee,we should continue to uphold and improve the basic socialist economic system and promote high-quality economic development.