我国省域旅游地脆弱性对旅游突发事件严重性的门槛效应

Threshold Effect of Provincial Destination Vulnerability on the Severity of Tourism Emergencies in China

识别旅游地脆弱性对旅游突发事件管控具有重要意义。本研究从经济、社会、环境三个子系统对旅游地脆弱性进行评价,基于2011—2017年全国31个省域旅游地(不含港澳台)的面板数据,通过普通面板回归模型验证了旅游地脆弱性对旅游突发事件严重性的线性影响;以旅游地脆弱性、旅游业发展水平和增长速度作为门槛变量,通过面板门槛回归模型,检验了旅游地脆弱性对旅游突发事件严重性的门槛效应。研究结果表明:(1)旅游地脆弱性对旅游突发事件严重性具有预测作用;(2)旅游地脆弱性和旅游突发事件严重性之间存在门槛效应,即旅游地脆弱性和旅游突发事件之间的关系是“S”型影响过程;(3)随着旅游业发展水平的提高,脆弱性对旅游突发事件严重性的影响效应随之减小;(4)随着旅游业增长速度的提升,脆弱性对旅游突发事件严重性的影响效应先增加后减小。研究提出,旅游地应基于脆弱性水平及其旅游业发展水平和增长速度来识别和管控旅游突发事件。

Vulnerability is an important exploration direction in the field of security research,which is of great significance to disaster prevention and mitigation.Therefore,the identification of destinations vulnerability is of great value to tourism emergencies management and control.This study focuses on the relationship between the vulnerability of tourist destination and the severity of tourism emergencies,and then constructed a vulnerability assessment system for tourist destinations.The study also explored the linear impact and threshold effect of tourism vulnerability on the severity of tourism emergencies based on the panel data of 31 provinces(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)in 2011-2017.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Based on the theoretical framework of VSD vulnerability proposed by Polsky,a destination vulnerability assessment system including 23 indicators at four levels of“overall vulnerability-subsystem vulnerability-subsystem dimensionality-index factor”was constructed in this study,and each index was weighted by entropy weight method.The results show that the overall vulnerability of provincial tourist destinations in China has been effectively governed,especially the economic vulnerability.(2)The destination vulnerability plays a significant role in predicting the severity of tourism emergencies.The study used the general panel regression model to examine the linear impact of tourist destination vulnerability on the severity of tourism emergencies.The results show that the overall vulnerability and subsystem vulnerability have a significant positive impact on the severity of tourism emergencies,among which social vulnerability has the largest impact,followed by economic vulnerability,and environmental vulnerability has the smallest impact.(3)There is a threshold effect between the vulnerability of tourist destinations and the severity of tourism emergencies.When the vulnerability of tourism destination is taken as the threshold variable,the economic vulnerability,social vulnerability and environmental vulnerability have significant double threshold effect on the severity of tourism emergencies,while the overall vulnerability has no significant threshold effect on the severity of tourism emergencies.The relationship among economic vulnerability,social vulnerability,environmental vulnerability and the severity of tourism emergencies is an“S”shaped curve influencing process.(4)When the level of tourism development is taken as the threshold variable,the overall vulnerability,economic vulnerability and social vulnerability have threshold effect on the severity of tourism emergencies,while environmental vulnerability has no threshold effect on the severity of tourism emergencies.The results show that the improvement of tourism development level helps to alleviate the impact of the overall vulnerability,economic vulnerability and social vulnerability on the severity of tourism emergencies.(5)When the growth rate of tourism is taken as the threshold variable,the overall vulnerability,economic vulnerability and social vulnerability have threshold effect on the severity of tourism emergencies,while environmental vulnerability has no threshold effect on the severity of tourism emergencies.With the increase of tourism growth rate,the impact of overall vulnerability,economic vulnerability and social vulnerability on the severity of tourism emergencies increases first and then decreases.Based on the above conclusions,this study has the following policy implications:First,provincial tourist destinations should establish systematic principles of vulnerability management to ensure that the vulnerability of any process is not ignored.Second,the tourist destination management department should downplay the single evaluation indicators of tourism development such as economic quantity and pay more attention to diversified evaluation contents such as tourism development quality and tourist satisfaction,so as to promote the high-quality development of the tourism industry.Third,the tourist destination should adopt development models suiting local conditions.