基于最大熵模型的红脂大小蠹在陕西北部地区的潜在分布

Potential Distribution of Dendroctonus valens in Northern Shaanxi Based on Maximum Entropy Model

为陕西北部地区制定红脂大小蠹早期监测、预警及控制措施提供参考,依据红脂大小蠹的地理分布及其环境因子数据,采用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)对红脂大小蠹在陕西北部地区的潜在分布区进行预测,并检测环境因子对红脂大小蠹生存的阈值。结果表明:MaxEnt模型预测红脂大小蠹潜在生境分布的精度较高;红脂大小蠹生存的适宜区主要在陕西黄龙县的中部和南部、宜川县的东南部、陕西韩城市的西北部、旬邑县的东北部和黄陵县的西南部等,中等适宜区位于适宜区周围;最冷月最低气温、最干月降雨量、等温性和最热月极高温度是影响红脂大小蠹生存的主要因子,各因子红脂大小蠹生存阈值分别为-12.5^-10.8℃、4.10~5.45 mm、27.5~29.7和22.5~25.8℃。加强红脂大小蠹适宜区和中等适宜区的防控和监测,对防治红脂大小蠹的传播有重要意义。

In order to provide a reference for the establishment of early monitoring,early warning and control measures for Dendroctonus valens in the northern Shaanxi,based on the geographic distribution of D.valens and its environmental factor data,the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)was used to predict the potential distribution area of D.valens in northern Shaanxi,and the threshold of environmental factors for the survival of D.valens was detected.Results:MaxEnt model performed excellent in predicting its potential planting area.The suitable areas for the survival of D.valens were mainly in the middle and south of Huanglong County in Shaanxi,the southeast of Yichuan County,the northwest of Hancheng,the northeast of Xunyi County,and the southwest of Huangling County.The medium suitable area was located around the suitable area;The lowest temperature in the coldest month,the rainfall in the driest month,the isothermality and the extremely high temperature in the hottest month were the main factors affecting the survival of D.valens,the survival thresholds of D.valens were respectively-12.5^-10.8℃,4.10~5.45 mm,27.5~29.7 and 22.5~25.8℃.Strengthening the prevention and control,and monitoring of suitable areas and mid-suitable areas of D.valens was of great significance in preventing the spread of D.valens.