基于季节性指数平滑模型的医院出院人次预测研究

Prediction of discharge person-time based on seasonal exponential smoothing model

目的比较各季节性指数平滑模型对医院出院人次的预测效果,探讨季节性指数平滑模型在出院人次预测中的应用。方法采用各季节性指数平滑模型,逐次对某医院2011年1月-2018年12月出院人次拟合,预测2019年1-7月的出院人次。结果Winters加法模型在各季节性指数平滑模型中达到了相对较高的拟合优度,预测值平均相对误差为-3.660%,预测趋势符合实际发展趋势。结论Winters加法模型能够对医院出院人次进行科学合理的预测,可以为医院的领导决策、资源调配、工作评估、计划制定提供重要的参考依据。

Objective This paper compares the prediction effect of each seasonal exponential smoothing model on hospital discharge person-time and discusses the application of seasonal exponential smoothing model in prediction of hospital discharge man-time.Methods Each seasonal exponential smoothing model was used to fit the discharge time of a hospital from January 2011 to December 2018,and predict the discharge person-time from January to July 2019.Results Winters addition model achieved relatively high goodness of fit in various seasonal exponential smoothing models.The average relative error of predicted value was-3.660%,and the predicted trend was in line with the actual development trend.Conclusions Winters addition model could scientifically and reasonably predict hospital discharge man-time,and provide important references for hospital leaders to make decisions,allocate resources,evaluate work and make plans.