外部经济政策不确定性与中国出口贸易——基于行业数据的实证分析

External Economic Policy Uncertainty and China’s Export——Based on Empirical Study of Industry Date

外部经济政策不确定性会冲击一国的对外贸易。本文采用Baker等构建的经济政策不确定性指数,考察2003—2016年21个贸易伙伴国的经济政策不确定性对中国出口贸易的影响大小,并通过引入贸易成本、贸易协议等变量分析经济政策不确定性对中国出口贸易的作用机制。研究表明,出口目的国的经济政策不确定性对中国出口具有持续滞后的负向影响,在经济衰退时期尤甚,且该影响会因国家异质性和出口行业异质性表现出差异。经济政策不确定性与贸易成本、自由贸易协议(简称FTA协议)均存在交互影响。随着贸易成本的上升,外部经济政策不确定性对中国出口贸易的抑制作用会显著增大;FTA协议能促进中国对协议伙伴方的出口,并能抑制协议伙伴方的经济政策不确定性对中国出口贸易的负面效应。

The external economic policy uncertainty will greatly impact a country’s export.Using the economic policy uncertainty index constructed by Baker et al.and HP filtering method,this paper examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty of 21 trading partners in 2003—2016 on China’s exports,and through the introduction of variables such as trade costs and trade openness,it further analyzes the mechanism of economic policy uncertainty on China’s export.The study shows that the uncertainty of economic policy in export destination countries has a negative impact on China’s exports,especially during the recession,and the impact will be different due to national heterogeneity and heterogeneity of export industries.Economic policy uncertainty has an interactive impact on trade costs and trade openness.As trade costs rise,the external economic policy uncertainty will significantly increase China’s export.The increase in trade openness will also enhance the negative effects of external economic policy uncertainty on China’s export trade,but the promotion effect of expanding openness on China’s exports is far greater than this restraining effect.