家庭杠杆与收入波动对城乡消费差异的影响——基于中国家庭追踪调查数据

The Impacts of Household Leverage and Income Fluctuation on the Difference between Urban and Rural Consumption——Based on China Family Panel Studies

基于四期中国家庭动态追踪调查(CFPS)平衡面板数据,采用近似理想需求系统(AIDS)理论模型,分析家庭杠杆和收入波动对城乡消费差异的影响。研究发现:(1)加杠杆对消费需求有显著的增促作用,收入波动对其有抑制效果,不具"投资品"性质的住房资产难以发挥其资产效应,相反,金融资产因"心理账户"效应刺激消费作用显著;(2)异质性分析表明,城乡消费结构因社会保险体系、户籍管理制度和金融借贷渠道单一而差异过大;(3)空间差异性显示,西部因政策倾斜带来的消费激增需保证其长期稳定性,京津冀区域因户籍管理制度导致流迁人口与原住户之间差异过大;(4)总的来看,完善社会保障、扩展借贷途径和改良户籍管理制度以减缓家庭收入不确定性是拉动内需的根本之道。

Based on the balanced panel data of the four China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),an empirical model of the Almost Ideal Demand System(AIDS)was used to empirically analyze the impact of household leverage and income fluctuations on urban-rural consumption differences.The research conclusions are as follows:(1)Leverage has a significant role in increasing consumer demand,and income fluctuations have a restraining effect on it.Housing assets that are not of the"investment"nature can hardly exert their asset effects.On the contrary,financial assets stimulate the consumption effect due to the"psychological account"effect Significant;(2)Heterogeneity analysis shows that the structures of urban and rural consumption exhibits huge difference due to a single social insurance system,household registration management system and financial lending channels;(3)Spatial difference analysis shows that the consumption surge caused by the policy tilt in the west calls for long-term stability.Due to the household registration management system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the difference between the displaced population and the original household is too large.(4)In general,improving social security,expanding lending channels,and improving the household registration management system to mitigate the uncertainty of household income are the fundamental ways to boost domestic demand.