地方债:规模、效率与风险

Local Government Debt:Scale,Efficiency and Risk

本文基于财政运行效率视角,重点考察地方债规模对债务风险的影响及依赖条件,研究发现:(1)我国地方财政资金配置效率自2010年以来逐年递减,但债务规模对债务风险的影响对其存在显著依赖,财政资金配置效率越高,越有利于缓解债务规模增长带来的风险;(2)市场化水平、经济贸易对外开放程度、地方政府分权程度、经济发展水平、产业结构变化、城镇化水平、金融深化程度等外生条件改善,有利于通过作用于财政运行效率提升进而降低地方债务风险;(3)地方债务结构异质性分析发现,相对于一般债务,专项债务管理更具特殊性,其债务风险生成机制更为复杂,且风险更高。

Based on the perspective of fiscal operating efficiency,this paper focuses on the impact of local debt scale on debt risk and its dependence conditions.The study found that:(1)the efficiency of local fiscal capital allocation in China has been decreasing year by year since 2010,but the impact of debt scale on debt risk has a significant dependence on it,and the higher the efficiency of fiscal capital allocation,the more conducive to mitigating the risks caused by the increase in debt scale;(2)the level of marketization,the degree of economic and trade opening to the outside world,the degree of decentralization of local governments,the level of economic development,and industrial structure improvements in exogenous conditions such as changes,urbanization levels,and financial deepening are conducive to reducing the risk of local debt by acting on the improvement of financial operation efficiency;(3)the analysis of the heterogeneity of local debt structure found that,compared with general debt,special debt management more specific,its debt risk generation mechanism is more complicated,and the risk is higher.