成功是失败之母:日本缘何陷入“供给侧政策陷阱”?

Success Is the Mother of Failure:Why Did Japan Fall into the "Supply-Side Policy Trap"?

在战后日本实现工业化的过程中,由于经济发展的约束条件不是需求不足而是供给不足,因此没有像欧美国家那样实行凯恩斯主义政策,而是选择了产业政策即供给侧政策。战后日本为迅速实现工业化,政府与生产者结盟,实施的供给侧政策则是一种结构性政策,通过向符合国家发展战略的产业部门重点配置资源的方式加速工业化进程,实现了工业化基础上的高速增长,获得了巨大的成功。但是在完成向工业化经济转型之后,政策实施的条件和环境已经发生重大变化,日本政府为了生产者的利益,仍然拒绝基本政策方向的调整,陷入"供给侧政策陷阱",招致失败。日本的案例表明,在工业化和经济发展过程中曾经导致成功的因素,在约束条件发生变化后反而成为导致失败的因素,恰如"成功是失败之母"。

In the process of post-war industrialization in Japan,because the constraints of economic development were not insufficient demand but insufficient supply,instead of implementing Keynesian policies like those in Europe and the United States,they chose industrial policies,namely supply-side policies.In order to achieve rapid industrialization in Japan after the war,the government and producers formed an alliance,implemented the supply-side policy as a structural policy,and succeeded in achieving the rapid growth on the basis of industrialization by allocating resources to industrial sectors that are in line with the national development strategy.However,after completing the transition to an industrialized economy,the conditions and environment for policy implementation had undergone major changes,but for the benefit of producers,the Japanese government still refused to adjust the basic policy direction and fell into a"supply-side policy trap",incurring failure.The case of Japan shows that the factors that led to success in the course of industrialization and economic development have become the factors that caused failure after changes in the constraints,just like"success is the mother of failure".