基于气温预测燃气日用气量的智慧平台建设

Construction of Smart Platform for Predicting Daily Gas Consumption Based on Air Temperature

由于上游气源单位要求下游燃气公司执行日计划用气量申报制度,因此,燃气日用气量预测的准确性十分重要。构建的燃气预警指挥智慧平台是通过研究气温和燃气日用气量之间的规律进而实现燃气日用气量预测的软件,由基础数据采集层、数据信息处理层和业务功能展示层3层架构组成。供暖期预测模型采用动态的综合线性回归和自回归相结合的混合线性方程,非供暖期预测模型采用动态非线性方程,两个预测模型均基于前一天的气温和日用气量来预测后一天的燃气日用气量,并将预测结果进行可视化图表展现。分析燃气预警指挥智慧平台的建设背景、建设目标、组成、各部分的功能、燃气日用气量预测模型的构建、后台管理。实践表明,该平台预测效果良好。

Because the upstream gas source unit requires the downstream gas company to implement the daily gas consumption declaration system,the accuracy of daily gas consumption prediction is very important.The constructed gas early warning command smart platform is a software that realizes the prediction of daily gas consumption by studying the law between air temperature and daily gas consumption.It consists of a 3-layer architecture of basic data acquisition layer,data information processing layer and business function display layer.The prediction model for heating period uses a mixed linear equation combining dynamic comprehensive linear regression and autoregression,and the prediction model for non-heating period uses dynamic nonlinear equations.Both prediction models predict the gas consumption of the next day based on the temperature and gas consumption of the previous day,and visualize the prediction results.The construction background,construction goals,composition,functions of various parts of the gas warning and command smart platform,the construction of daily gas consumption prediction model and background management of the gas early warning and command smart platform are analyzed.Practice shows that the prediction effect of the platform is good.