四川省经济差异时空动态多尺度分析

An analysis of multiscale spatio-temporal dynamics of economic inequality in Sichuan Province

以地级市、县人均GDP现价数据为经济差异测度,采用探索性时空数据分析方法和Mann-Kendall突变检验法,分析1998—2016年不同空间尺度上四川省区域经济时空动态情况.结果表明,不同空间尺度上四川省区域经济绝对差异都呈扩大趋势,相对差异呈波浪式减弱态势.经济空间集聚效应与地理尺度密切相关,空间尺度越小,聚集效应越明显.经济空间差异在不同空间尺度呈现不同动态演化规律,市域尺度聚集程度呈先增大后减弱的时序变化,经济冷点中心向东北方向移动;县域尺度则表现为先减弱后增强的变化,呈现热点中心稳定和冷点范围持续扩展的演进态势.经济空间结构长期稳定,存在路径依赖性.区域与其邻域经济发展关系呈"共赢或共输"运动趋势,动态发展具有空间依赖性.

This paper provides an analysis of dynamics of regional inequality across prefectures and counties in Sichuan Province from 1998 to 2016 under a comparative spatiotemporal conceptual framework.Firstly,a quantitative study on GDP per capita was conducted using the exploratory spatial and time data analysis(ESTDA).Local indicators of spatial autocorrelation(LISA)are employed to visualize the local spatial characteristics of economic growth.Secondly,Mann-Kendall test is used to analyse the time mutation of spatial agglomeration.Results indicated that,at different spatial scales,the absolute differences of regional economy in Sichuan Province are expanding,while the relative differences are decreasing in waves.The economic spatial agglomeration was closely related with spatial scales in the study area:the smaller the unit,the bigger the spatial agglomeration.Stronger agglomeration of economic development is demonstrated at county scales.The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of economic inequality vary with different spatial scales.The degree of aggregation increases and then decreases at prefecture scale,and the center of economic cold spots moves to the northeast.While,at county scale,it shows that hot spots centers are stable and cold spots range is continuous expansion with the degree of aggregation from weakening to strengthening.Finally,LISA Markov and geo-visualization methods are employed to predict the long-run properties of spatial distribution in Sichuan Province.There is stable and path dependence in economic structure of in Sichuan Province.Co-movements of a region with its neighbors are more frequently encountered,perhaps resulting in the continuous concentration of poor areas in the long run.