基于灰色系统模型的危险废物产生量预测研究

Prediction of hazardous waste generation based on grey system model

危险废物的产生量预测是确定废物处理处置设施规模的主要依据,也是废物区域优化管理的重要前提。为有效预测城市危险废物的产生量,以我国南方某工业较发达城市为研究对象,在危险废物产生量现状摸底调查及分析的基础上,采用灰色系统模型,并综合考虑经济增长、人口因素、科技进步等影响因子,对该市危险废物产生量的变化趋势进行预测研究。研究证明灰色系统模型是一个较好的预测危险废物产生量的工具,利用该模型预测出来的结果可为环境管理部门提供决策参考。

The prediction of the production of hazardous wastes is the main basis for determining the scale of waste treatment and disposal facilities,and is also an important premise of optimal management of waste areas.In order to predict the amount of hazardous waste produced in the city effectively,this article takes a relatively developed city in southern China as research object. Based on the investigation and analysis of the current status of hazardous waste production,a grey system model is adopted and impact factors such as economic growth,population and scientific and technological progress are comprehensively considered to predict the trend of changes in the amount of hazardous waste produced in the city. The research proves that the grey system model is a good tool for predicting the amount of hazardous waste generated,and the prediction results can provide decision-making reference for government departments and environmental manager.