房地产投资、居民消费与城市经济增长

Real estate investment,resident consumption and urban economic growth

本文梳理总结了房地产投资、居民消费对经济增长影响的机理,利用我国253个地级城市2003-2016年面板数据,依据区域不同,将城市样本划分为东、中、西三个部分,依据中小规模城市标准,将城市样本划分为两个部分,使用PD-GMM (panel data-generalized method of moments)方法,建立和估计了房地产投资、居民消费对经济增长影响的5个面板数据模型,得出结论:1、城市房地产投资与城市产出存在倒U型曲线关系,即在城市发展初期,城市产出会随着城市房地产投资的提高而增加,直至达到城市房地产投资的边际收益为0的点,城市产出随着城市房地产投资的提升呈现减小趋势.2、城市居民消费与经济增长正相关,即提升居民消费水平,进一步释放居民消费潜力,有利于城市经济增长.城市经济越发达,城市规模越大,居民消费对城市产出的正向效应越大.3、房地产投资的持续增加将减弱居民消费对经济增长的正向效应.城市经济越发达,城市规模越大,减弱效应越明显.

This paper summarizes the mechanism of the impact of real estate investment and consumption on economic growth.Based on panel data of 253 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2016,according to regional differences,the urban samples are divided into three parts:East,middle and west.According to the standards of small and medium-sized cities,the urban samples are divided into two parts.Using PD-GMM(panel data-generalized method of moments)method,this paper establishes and estimates five panel data models of the impact of real estate investment and consumption level on economic growth,and draws a conclusion:1、There is an inverted U-shaped curve relationship between real estate investment level and urban output,that is,in the early stage of urban development,urban output will increase with the improvement of urban real estate investment level until the point where the marginal income of urban real estate investment level reaches zero,and urban output will increase with urban real estate investment level.The level of improvement shows a decreasing trend.2、Consumption level is positively correlated with economic growth,that is,to enhance consumption level and further release consumption potential is conducive to urban economic growth.The more developed the urban economy and the larger the scale of the city,the greater the positive effect of consumption level on urban output.3、The continuous increase of real estate investment will weaken the positive effect of consumption level on economic growth.The more developed the urban economy,the larger the scale of the city,the more obvious the weakening effect.