基于径流预报的挠力河中下游湿地人工补水研究

Study on wetland artificial water replenishment in middle and lower reaches of Naolihe river based on runoff forecast

为保护湿地生态环境,合理规划和配置水资源,选用ARIMA模型对挠力河中下游径流进行预测。文中通过对宝安站、宝清站和蔡咀子站的1981年至2017年的实测流量进行分析,采用乘积形式将季节性ARIMA模型与非季节性ARIMA模型结合起来对2020年的流量进行预测,预测精度分别为0.775、0.747和0.864,均达到乙级预报水平。经计算,3个水文站的全年预测水量满足湿地生态需水量要求,但5月、9月、10月存在季节性缺水,在来水保证率高于60%和38%时,需对湿地进行最小和适宜级别的补水。

In order to protect the wetland ecological environment and rationally plan and allocate water resources,ARIMA model is used to predict the runoff in the middle and lower reaches of Naolihe river.Based on the analysis of the measured traffic of Baoan station,Baoqing station and Caizuizi station from 1981 to 2017,the product form is adopted to combine the seasonal ARIMA model and the non-seasonal ARIMA model to predict the traffic in 2020.The prediction accuracy is 0.775,0.747 and 0.864 respectively,reaching the level of Grade B forecast.After calculation,the annual forecast water amount of the three hydrological stations meets the ecological water demand requirements of wetland,but seasonal water shortage exists in May,September and October.When the water inflow guarantee rate is 60%and 38%,the minimum and appropriate level of water replenishment should be carried out for the wetland.