“十四五”时期的农业农村发展环境分析与战略思考

Analysis and Strategic Thinking of Agricultural and Rural Development Environment in the"14th Five-Year Plan"Period

"十四五"时期,我国人均GDP将进入一万美元区间,届时我国经济结构转换、产业结构转型、新型城镇化推进、乡村振兴战略规划的实施,都会给我国农业农村发展带来新机遇。同时还要看到,中国的宏观环境或将发生变化,其中经济增长率进一步下降,国家财政收入增长放缓,会挤压政府支持农业农村优先发展的空间;国内产业结构变动会加大农民就业困难;城镇化进程可能会慢于"十三五"时期,由此给农业剩余劳动力转移、实现农业适度规模经营带来不利;国际环境变化特别是中美贸易战也将对农业农村带来极大影响;还有,农民收入增长速度将继续放慢,城乡、群体间差距扩大趋势扭转难度加大。建议"十四五"期间推进农业农村优先发展实施"三加战略",即加大对农业农村的支持力度,加快推进新型城镇化,加快体制机制改革。

During the"14th Five-Year Plan"period,China’s GDP per capita will enter a high rank of 10,000 US dollars.At that time,China’s economic structural transformation,industrial structural transformation,new urbanization promotion,and implementation of Rural Revitalization Strategic Plan will bring new opportunities for China’s agricultural and rural development.It should be noted that China’s macro environment will also change at the same timewith a further decline in economic growthanda slowdown in national fiscal revenue growth,which might squeeze the government’s support for agricultural and rural development priority.Changes in the domestic industrial structure will make it more difficult for farmers to find employment,and the urbanization process may get slower than the"13th Five-Year Plan"period,which will bring disadvantagesof the transfer of surplus agricultural labor and the realization of appropriate large-scale agricultural management.Changes in the international environment,especially the Sino-US trade dispute will also have a great impact on agriculture and rural areas.In addition,the growth rate of farmers’ income will continue to slow down,and it might be more difficult to reverse the widening gap between urban and rural areas and between groups.So,it is recommended to advance development of agriculture and rural areas during the"14th Five-Year Plan"period and to implement a"Three Promotion Strategies",which includes the more supporting for agricultural and rural areas,more supporting for institutional mechanisms.