浅论深圳市社区老年健康服务体系机构建设

Research on the Development of Community Elderly Healthcare Delivery System in Shenzhen

目的:通过分析深圳市老年人健康服务需求及其提供现状,据此预测2025年、2030年老年康复中心、护理中心和社会卫生健康服务中心的机构需求量,并对深圳市老年健康服务体系的规划建设提出政策建议。方法:利用人口平移法对深圳市人口、老龄化程度及老年健康服务需求进行预测,结合人口比值法确定深圳市2025及2030年的机构需求量。结果:深圳市预计2025年进入中度老龄化社会,从疾病构成及患病率情况来看,深圳市老年健康服务需求以高龄老人、失能老人照护为重点,而当前深圳市医疗机构的社区老年健康服务提供能力不足,部分区级机构老年康复科从业人员不足50人。机构需求量测算结果表明,深圳市在2025、2030年对老年康复中心的需求量分别为21家、40家,对护理中心的需求量为27家、53家。结论:与预测的需求数量相比,深圳市存在巨大的老年健康服务提供机构规划缺口,需要通过完善老年康复、护理专业人才培养机制和推行老年疾病分级管理制度等来进一步弥补。

Objective:To predict the institutional demand for geriatric rehabilitation centers,nursing centers and social health service centers in 2025 and 2030 based on the analysis of the demand for and provision of health services for the elderly in Shenzhen.The policy suggestions for the planning and development of the elderly healthcare delivery system in Shenzhen were put forward.Methods:Population translation method was used to predict the population,aging degree and elderly health service demand in Shenzhen,and the institutional demand in 2025 and 2030 was determined by population ratio method.Results:In 2025,Shenzhen is expected to enter the aging society.From the composing and prevalence of disease,Shenzhen elderly health service demand mainly focuses on the advanced age,disability,elderly care.But former Shenzhen medical institutions of the community elderly health service ability is insufficient,part of the district organizations geriatric rehabilitation division staff are less than 50 people.The estimated demand of institutions shows that in 2025 and 2030,there will be 21 and 40 geriatric rehabilitation centers and 27 and 53 nursing centers in Shenzhen.Conclusion:Compared with the predicted demand,there is a huge gap in planning of health service providers for the elderly in Shenzhen,which needs to be further compensated by improving the mechanism of geriatric rehabilitation,training nursing professionals and implementing the hierarchical management system of diseases for the elderly.