碳价格对中国区域碳生产率的潜在影响

The Potential Influence of Carbon Price on China’s Regional Carbon Productivity

本文阐明碳价格通过非低碳、低碳技术企业的生产成本与减排选择变动,进而影响区域碳生产率变动的理论机制。以此为理论基础,运用动态空间面板模型与反事实模拟相结合的方法,对理论假说进行反事实测算。研究表明:碳价格与能源成本的映射关系存在区域异质性,这与不同区域能源消费结构有关;除经济欠发达地区外,能源成本对区域碳生产率的影响呈现单调递增的变化趋势,且2008年后能源价格市场化改革明显强化了这一变化趋势;通过施加不同水平的碳价格,碳市场将促进经济较发达地区碳生产率边际效应与累积效应的显著提升,若拟定碳价格为50元/吨~150元/吨,经济较发达地区碳生产率分别累积增长0.998%~2.827%,而经济欠发达地区碳生产率变化不明显。因此,碳价格约束下经济较发达地区存在经济增长与环境质量的潜在双重红利,能源价格调整、产业碳解锁有利于强化碳价格的正面效应。

The paper elaborates how carbon prices influence the regional carbon productivity through the production costs and the emission mitigation options of low-carbon and non-low-carbon enterprises.Based on this theoretical hypothesis,the paper combines dynamic spatial panel model with counter-factual simulation to calculate the potential counter-factual effect.The empirical results show that:Firstly,the relationship between the carbon prices and the energy costs is regional heterogeneous in terms of the regional structure of energy consumption.Secondly,the influence of energy costs on regional carbon productivity is monotonically increasing,except the economically underdeveloped areas.The market-based reform of energy prices strengthens the influence after 2008.Thirdly,through setting different carbon prices,the carbon trading market could evidently improve both the marginal effect and the cumulative effect of the carbon productivity in the economically developed areas.For example,if carbon prices were set from 50 yuan to 150 yuan per ton,the regional carbon productivity would accumulatively increase from 0.998%to 2.827%in economically developed areas but change insignificantly in economically underdeveloped areas.Therefore,under the constrains of carbon prices,economically developed areas have potential double dividends of economic growth and environmental quality.The adjustment of energy price and the unlock of industrial carbon are favor to strengthen the positive effect of carbon prices.