“一带一路”沿线国家恐怖主义风险研究

Research on Terrorism Risks of the Countries along“The Belt and Road Initiative”

“一带一路”沿线地区恐怖主义泛滥、恐怖袭击多发,直接影响到“一带一路”倡议的实施。预防沿线国家非传统风险,评估沿线国家恐怖主义风险,防控恐怖袭击,保障“一带一路”倡议顺利推进和我国海外利益安全,成为现实而紧迫的问题。因此,基于对“一带一路”沿线61个国家21435起恐怖袭击案例的剖析,分析“一带一路”沿线国家恐怖主义现状,结合通用风险评估指标公式,结果显示,“一带一路”沿线六个地区的总体风险在不断增加,其中,东欧、中东和北非、南亚及东南亚遭受恐怖主义袭击的风险大幅上升。因此,我们要固本强基,进一步加强反恐怖国际合作,积极推动走出去的安保战略,严防恐怖主义袭击在“一带一路”倡议实施中给我国带来的负影响。

Rampant terrorism and frequent terrorist attacks in the countries along“The Belt and Road Initiative”directly threat the initiative implementation.It is urgent that the measures of non-traditional risks prevention,terrorism risks assessment and terrorist attacks control should be taken to ensure smooth progress of“The Belt and Road Initiative”and safeguard China’s overseas security.Therefore,based on 21,435 cases of terrorist attacks in 61 countries along“The Belt and Road Initiative”,this paper analyzes the current situation in these countries with the general risk assessment indicator formula.The results show that the overall risk of six regions is increasing,especially Eastern Europe,the Middle East and North Africa,South Asia and Southeast Asia.In order to prevent the negative impact of terrorist attacks on China in the implementation of“The Belt and Road Initiative”,measures should be taken to consolidate the foundation,strengthen international anti-terrorism cooperation,and actively promote the security strategy of going global.