巴基斯坦卡洛特水电站实时洪水预报系统设计及运用

Design and application of real-time flood forecasting system for Karot Hydropower Station in Pakistan

针对巴基斯坦卡洛特水电站施工期洪水预测预报问题,结合吉拉姆河流域特性,设计了巴基斯坦卡洛特水电站实时洪水预报系统。对预报系统结构、重要数学模型以及运行流程进行了介绍,并利用"20180420"和"20180807"洪水对预报系统的精确性进行了检验。结果表明:卡拉斯-帕坦区间两场洪水平均洪峰相对误差和峰时误差分别为11.7%和0.5 h,帕坦-卡洛特坝址区间两场洪水平均洪峰相对误差和峰时误差分别为0.55%和0.5 h,结果均满足要求。巴基斯坦卡洛特水电站实时洪水预报系统能较好地对汛期洪水进行预报,为卡洛特水电站施工期防洪度汛提供了科学依据和技术保障。

In view of the problems of flood forecasting during construction period of Karot Hydropower Station in Pakistan,combining the characteristics of the Jhelum river basin,a real-time flood forecasting system for the Karot hydropower station in Pakistan was established.The structure,important mathematical model and running process of the forecast system were introduced,and the"20180420"and"20180807"floods were used to test the accuracy of the forecasting system.The results showed that the mean peak relative error and peak hour error of the two floods in the Chattar Kallas^Azad Pattan interval were 11.7%and 0.5 h,the mean peak relative error and peak hour error of the two floods in the Azad Pattan^Karot dam site were 0.55%and 0.5 h.All the results meet the requirement of accuracy;therefore,the real-time flood forecasting system of Karot hydropower station in Pakistan can better fore⁃cast floods in flood season,and provide scientific basis and technical support for flood control in the construction period of Karot hydropower station.