宁夏耕地生产力与粮食安全耦合关系及趋势预测

Analysis and forecast of coupling relationship between cultivated land productivity and food security in Ningxia

粮食安全关系国家安全和长治久安,是民生根本。文中采用耕地压力指数、要素转移重心模型、灰色预测等方法,借助ArcGIS、灰色建模软件等工具,研究了2009-2017年宁夏县域耕地生产力与粮食安全的时空演化特征,并预测其未来变化趋势。结果表明:1)宁夏全区耕地生产力北部和中西部高于东南部地区,在地理空间上呈现两极分化态势,2009-2017年粮食单产始终对宁夏耕地生产力起主导作用;2)宁夏全区粮食产量重心位于红寺堡区境内,总体呈现由北向南移动的变化态势;3) 2009-2017年全区粮食安全压力较低,大多数县区耕地压力指数处于波动变化态势,利用状况为无压力,但银川市、石嘴山市和泾源县压力较大;4)2018-2022年宁夏绝大多数县区耕地压力指数依然处于无压力状态,但银川市和泾源县则属于高压增长状态,石嘴山市耕地压力指数开始出现下降趋势,全区粮食安全前景良好。

Food security is related to national security and long-term stability. In this paper, using the methods of cultivated land pressure index, factor transfer center of gravity model, gray prediction, etc., with the help of tools such as ArcGIS and grey modeling software, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of cultivated land productivity and food security in Ningxia County during 2009-2017 were studied, and its future trends were predicted. The results show that:(1) The northern and southwestern cultivated land productivity in Ningxia is higher than that in the southeast, showing a polarization trend. The grain yield in 2009-2017 had always played a leading role in the cultivated land productivity in Ningxia.(2) The focus of grain production in Ningxia located in the territory of Hongsibao district, it was moving to the south region.(3) In 2009-2017, the pressure index of cultivated land in most counties of Ningxia was in a state of volatility, and the utilization situation was no pressure. The pressures in Yinchuan City, Shizuishan City and Wuyuan County increased obviously. Generally speaking, the food security pressure in Ningxia was relatively low, and the inter-regional differences were large.(4) In 2018-2022, the pressure index of cultivated land in most counties of Ningxia was still in a state of no pressure, but Yinchuan City and Jingyuan County were in a state of high pressure growth. The pressure index of cultivated land in Shizuishan City began to decline, and the food security prospects in the whole district were good.