基于不确定性理论的水期权交易及其定价研究——以引汉济渭工程为例

Water option transaction and its pricing in China based on uncertainty theory

水期权是一种用来应对水资源短缺风险的衍生金融工具。文中在引入不确定性过程对水期权进行定价的基础上,以引汉济渭工程受水区工业用水企业水期权为例进行实证分析,对应用水期权的收益进行了研究。研究结果显示,受水区工业企业进行水期权交易可为企业带来一定的用水成本节约、并为受水区带来潜在工业增加值的增加。另外,中短期水期权交易比长期水期权交易更有利。通过水期权交易的实施,可减少农业水浪费、促进水节约。

Water option is a derivative financial instrument used to avoid the risk of water shortage.Incoporating the uncertainty process to price the water option,we conducted an empirical analysis on the water option of industrial enterprises in the water-receiving area of the Han river to the Wei river water transfer project,and evaluated the benefits of the water option applications.Results show that the trading of water option for industrial enterprises in the water receiving area can bring water cost saving and increase the potential industrially added value for the receiving area.In addition,short and medium terms of water options trading are more favorable than the long term water options trading.Implementation of water option trading can increase agricultural water use efficiency and promote water conservation.