中国城镇化的农村减贫及其空间溢出效应——基于省级面板数据的空间计量分析

Rural poverty reduction and its spatial spillover effects of Chinese urbanization:Based on the analysis of spatial econometric model with provincial panel data

利用中国省级面板数据,运用空间计量模型,重点检验了2010—2017年间中国省域人口城镇化、土地城镇化和经济城镇化的农村减贫及其空间溢出效应。结果表明:①2010—2017年间中国省域农村贫困、人口城镇化和土地城镇化均表现出显著的空间集聚特征,而经济城镇化集聚现象呈现逐渐消减的态势。②人口城镇化对农村贫困主要表现为先缓解后加剧的"U"型特征,而经济城镇化则刚好与之相反,呈倒"U"型特点,土地城镇化对农村贫困的作用尚不明显,但主要表现出加剧农村贫困发生的潜在可能。③人口城镇化和经济城镇化对农村贫困产生了明显的空间溢出效应,同时,二者对农村贫困的空间溢出效应存在"门槛"现象。东部和中部地区的人口城镇化减贫直接效应门槛已基本突破,减贫潜力较弱,而大部分省份的人口城镇化减贫溢出效应门槛依然存在,益贫性的溢出效应仍然明显。相比之下,各省域经济城镇化减贫的直接效应和溢出效应门槛均已突破,整体上以益贫性为主。④城镇化发展过程中,应合理推进人口城镇化,加快完善相关制度改革。有效、有序地扩张城镇空间,优化城镇产业结构调整,壮大第三产业发展规模和强化其质量升级,增加城镇就业空间,提升城镇整体辐射带动效应。统筹协调区域人口、空间、资源等的分配与利用,充分发挥要素集聚带来的正向"外部性"作用,合力推进农村长效、稳定减贫,促进城乡协调与可持续发展。

Taking 27 provinces in China as an example, this paper mainly examines the rural poverty reduction and its spatial spillover effects of population urbanization, land urbanization and economic urbanization in China from 2010 to 2017. The results show that:(1) From 2010 to 2017, rural poverty, population urbanization and land urbanization in China’s provinces show significant characteristics of spatial agglomeration, while the spatial agglomeration of economic urbanization gradually decreased.(2) Population urbanization has a "U"-shaped character in the rural poverty, while economic urbanization has an inversed "U"-shaped character. Land urbanization has no obvious effect on the rural poverty;however, it mainly shows the potential to aggravate the occurrence of rural poverty.(3) Population urbanization and economic urbanization have obvious spatial spillover effect on rural poverty, meanwhile, they have a "threshold" phenomenon in the spatial spillover effect of rural poverty. The direct effect threshold of population urbanization in poverty reduction in the eastern and central regions has basically been broken through, and the poverty reduction potential is weak, while the spillover effect threshold of population urbanization on poverty reduction in most provinces still exists, and the beneficial spillover effect is still obvious. In contrast, the direct and spillover effects of economic urbanization in all the provinces have broken through the threshold.(4) The urbanization of population should be pushed forward reasonably, and the related system reform should be quickened. We will expand urban space effectively in an orderly manner, optimize the adjustment of urban industrial structure, expand the scale of tertiary industry of the economic development and strengthen its quality upgrading, increase urban employment rate and enhance the overall radiation-driven effect of cities and towns. The allocation and utilization of population, space and resources in the region should be coordinated in an overall way, and the positive "externalities" caused by factor aggregation should be brought into full play to promote long-term, stable and poverty reduction in rural areas, and promote urban-rural coordination and sustainable development.