基于梯度分析法的长江上游水库群供水-发电-环境互馈关系解析

Study on the mutual feedback relation among water supply-power generation-environment of reservoir group in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River based on gradient analysis method

长江上游水资源耦合系统优化调控涉及供水、发电和生态需水等相互竞争、不可公度的调控目标。其供水-发电-环境互馈协变机制难以数学解析和刻画,多维目标效益均衡优化调控难以实施。为此,以多目标优化、运筹学理论及方法为基础,提出了基于梯度分析法的供水-发电-环境两两互馈关系研究方法。通过多目标约束优化方法求解长江上游水库群联合优化调度在供水-发电-环境目标空间的最优解集,并进行插值构造了供水-发电-环境互馈关系多维空间曲面,以此为基础,采用一阶差分近似求解供水对环境和发电对环境偏导函数值,以量化环境对供水变化和发电变化响应的梯度,进而解析环境-供水和环境-发电间互馈协变关系。该方法为水库群优化调度多目标互馈关系研究提供了一种新的思路。

The optimal regulation of the coupled system of water resources in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River involves the competing and incommensurable objectives of water supply,power generation and ecological water requirements.It is difficult to analyse and describe the mutual feedback covariance mechanism of the water supply,power generation and environment and to balance and optimize the regulation of multiple objective benefits.Based on the theory and method of multi-objective optimization and operational research,a method to study the mutual feed relationship among water supply,power generation and the environment is proposed using gradient analysis.The multi-objective constrained optimization method is used to obtain the Pareto optimal solution set of the joint optimal operation of the reservoir group in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River within the objective space of the water supply-power generation-environment,and the multi-objective space surface of the mutual feed relationship of the water supply-power generation-environment is constructed by interpolation.Thus,the first-order difference approximation is used to acquire the partial derivative function values of the water supply to the environment and power generation to quantify the gradient of the environmental response to changes in the water supply and power generation.Then,the mutual feed covariance relationship of the water supply-power generation-environment is analysed.This method provides a new approach for studying the multi-objective mutual feed relationship of the optimal operation of the reservoir group.