中国城市生活垃圾排放及其影响因素的时空变化研究

Study on the temporal and spatial changes of municipal solid waste generation and influencing factors in China

城市生活垃圾是当前急需解决的环境问题.控制城市生活垃圾排放,减少城市生活垃圾带来的环境危害,事关我国生态文明建设.基于2003年和2017年中国258个地级市的数据,首先分析了中国城市生活垃圾排放的时空变化特征,然后利用最小二乘线性模型(OLS)和地理加权回归模型(GWR)研究了经济、城市人口规模、城市化水平和产业结构对城市生活垃圾排放的影响,并且将两种模型进行了比较.研究结果表明:1)除东北地区外,其他地区各城市的生活垃圾排放量有了很大增长,其中东部地区的城市增长最为明显,并且经济越发达人口越多的城市表现出更强的生活垃圾排放增长趋势,各城市的生活垃圾排放差异性不断扩大.2)OLS模型的回归结果表明经济、城市人口规模、城市化水平和产业结构对城市生活垃圾排放的促进作用增强,并且城市人口规模是促进城市生活垃圾排放的最重要因素,其次是产业结构、城市化水平、经济发展.3)GWR模型在解释城市生活垃圾排放的影响因素方面要优于OLS模型,并且GWR模型的回归结果表明各因素对城市生活垃圾排放的影响具有显著的空间差异性,并随时间发生了变化.根据研究结果和各城市的经济社会发展现状,对各城市提出了控制城市生活垃圾排放增长的针对性建议.

Municipal solid waste(MSW)is an environmental problem that needs to be solved urgently.Controlling the generation of MSW and reducing the environmental hazards caused by MSW are relevant to the construction of ecological civilization.Based on the data of 258 prefecture-level cities in China in 2003 and 2017,the characteristics of the spatio-temporal changes of MSW generation in China are analyzed.And then using ordinary least square model(OLS)and geographically weighted regression model(GWR)the impact of economy,population size,urbanization level and industrial structure on the generation of MSW are studied,and the two models are compared.The results of the study show as follows.First,except for the Northeast China region,the MSW generation of other regions'cities have greatly increased,and the East China region's cities are the most obvious.And the more economically developed the cities with the larger the population,the stronger the growth trend of MSW generation.Second,the regression results of OLS model suggests that the promotion effect of economy,urban population size,urbanization level and industrial structure on the generation of MSW is enhanced,and urban population size is the most important factor to promote MSW generation,followed by industrial structure,urbanization level,economic development.Third,GWR model is superior to OLS model in explaining the influencing factors of MSW generation,and the regression results of GWR model indicate that the influence of various factors on MSW generation has significant spatial differences and changes over time.According to the research results and the current economic and social development status of each city,specific suggestions are put forward for each city to control the growth of MSW generation.