基于DPSIR模型和水足迹理论的桂林市水资源承载力研究

Carrying capacity of water resources in Guilin city based on DPSIR framework and water footprint theory

水资源及其承载力评价能够为水资源规划、保护和合理利用提供基础支撑,对于区域水资源科学管理、维持区域生态安全和可持续发展具有重要意义。以广西省桂林市为研究区,基于DPSIR模型和水足迹理论,评估了城市水资源现状,并揭示2013—2017年水资源承载状态。结果表明:1)压力、状态和影响指标显示,现阶段桂林市水资源状况良好,且具有改善趋势,但驱动力和响应指标表明,未来社会经济发展过程中水资源仍面临一定压力;2)桂林市2013—2017年水资源平均供给量为需求量的1.35倍,存在水资源生态盈余;万元GDP水资源生态足迹平均为0.48 hm2/万元,为广西省平均水平,但明显高于国内其他地区。由此可见,桂林市水资源利用效率较低,在我国还处于较低水平。因此,管理部门还需加强水管理和环境保护等方面的政策倾斜和资金投入。

[Background]The evaluation of water resources and its carrying capacity can provide basic support for water resources planning,protection and rational utilization,which is of great significance for the scientific management of regional water resources,the maintenance of regional ecological security and sustainable development.In China,water footprint studies are mostly concentrated in northern areas,especially in areas and cities where water resources are relatively scarce,such as Beijing,Gansu and Liaoning,while that in southern areas got relatively few attentions.[Methods]Based on DPSIR(Driver-pressure-state-impact-response)framework,this study established the evaluation index system and assessed the water resources in the Guilin city,China.At the same time,the water footprint and carrying capacity of water resources in Guilin were evaluated and analyzed using water footprint model.[Results]1)From 2013 to 2017,the pressure index(e.g.total water consumption,agricultural water consumption,and COD discharge amount)showed a downward trend,while the state and influence index(e.g.total water resources,water consumption in GDP of RMB Yuan 10,000)showed a certain upward trend.All these indicated that water resources of Guilin city were in good condition and were developing in a positive trend.However,the corresponding driving force indicators(e.g.total population,total GDP,value-added of tertiary industry)were increasing,which may cause a certain amount pressure on water resources in the future development process.2)During 2013—2017,the average carrying capacity of water resources in Guilin city was 9.1624 million hm2,and the per capita carrying capacity of water resources was 1.75 hm2.The average water resources supply was 1.35 times of the demand of water resources.The carrying capacity of water resources was substantially larger than the ecological footprint of water resources and the Guilin city was in the state of ecological surplus.Moreover,the average ecological footprint of water resources of 10,000 RMB Yuan GDP was 0.48 hm2,which was at the average level of Guangxi province.However,it was obviously higher than other areas in China.[Conclusions]There are relatively adequate water resources in Guilin city.But the water use efficiency in Guilin is still at a relatively low level in China.The future pressure on water resources should not be ignored with the social-economic development.We suggest that Guilin's government should strengthen the management of environmental protection and water resources protection,such as policy inclination and capital investment,in order to guarantee the regional sustainable development.