基于灰色系统的太平洋褶柔鱼秋生群资源丰度灾变预测

Catastrophe prediction of abundance of autumn cohort of pleated squid Todarodes pacificus in Japan Sea and East China Sea based on gray system theory

为了对未来日本海和东海海域太平洋褶柔鱼Todarodes pacificus灾变年份进行预测,采用灰色系统年灾变预测GM(1,1)模型方法,根据1990—2014年日本海和东海海域太平洋褶柔鱼秋生群的单位捕捞努力量渔获量(catch per unit effort,CPUE),建立了多种灰色年灾变预测GM(1,1)模型,并比较该海域太平洋褶柔鱼建立的丰歉年灾变预测模型的精度,选择最优模型,对未来可能出现的丰歉年份进行预测。结果表明,该海域太平洋褶柔鱼秋生群资源丰度的丰年将发生在2020、2034、2052年,歉年将发生在2067、2125、2272年。研究表明,日本海和东海海域太平洋褶柔鱼秋生群资源丰度的灾变预测最优模型参数|a|<0.3,为一级精度模型,可用于该资源丰度的长期灾变预测。

The gray year catastrophe prediction GM(1,1)model was established according to the catch per unit effort(CPUE)of the pleated squid Todarodes pacificus in the Sea of Japan and East China Sea from 1990 to 2014,and the abrupt annual disaster prediction model established in the pleated squid was compared for screening of the optimal model in order to predict the future years of the pleated squid in the Sea of Japan and East China Sea,and provide a basis for future fishing investment and resource assessment.The results show that the resource abundance of the Pacific octopus in the sea will occur in 2020,2034,and 2052 for good years,and will occur in 2067,2125,and 2272 for lean years.The findings indicated that the optimal model for the catastrophe prediction of the abundance of the pleated squid in the Sea of Japan and East China Sea was a first-order accuracy grade model,and|a|<0.3,which can be used for medium-and long-term catastrophic prediction of its stock abundance.