台风登陆前沿海居民应急疏散决策影响因素分析

Analysis of Influencing Factors on Evacuation Decision Making of Coastal Residents under Typhoon Disaster

台风灾害给沿海居民的生命财产安全带来了极大隐患,应急疏散是台风登陆前降低灾害恶劣影响和后果的重要途径。通过对浙江沿海地区居民进行访谈调查,考察他们面临台风登陆前的应急心理和疏散行为,进而构建了基于Probit回归的疏散决策行为模型,从是否撤离和撤离态度两个层面对影响决策的心理因素和客观因素进行分析,以期为政府台风灾害应急响应管理提供参考依据和政策建议。

Typhoon disaster has brought great hidden danger to the life and property safety of coastal residents.Emergency evacuation is an important way to reduce the adverse impact and consequences of disaster before typhoon landfall.Based on interview survey with residents in coastal areas of Zhejiang province,this paper investigates their emergency psychology and evacuation decision behavior before typhoon landing,and then constructs a Probit regression based evacuation decision making behavior model.We analyze the psychological and objective factors that affect the decision making process from the two aspects,i.e.,whether to evacuate and evacuation attitude,so as to provide references for the government the typhoon disaster emergency response management basis and policy suggestions.