中国省际能源利用-经济发展-环境保护系统的时空耦合协调度分析

Analysis on spatio-temporal coupling coordination of China’s inter-provincial energy use-economic developmentenvironmental protection system

基于Super-SBM模型测算中国2000-2017年省际能源效率,并在此基础上构建能源利用-经济发展-环境保护(3E)系统综合评价体系,采用变异系数法、三元系统耦合协调模型与灰色GM(1,1)预测模型分析中国3E系统耦合协调度的空间布局及动态演变趋势。结果表明:(1)研究期内能源效率整体呈先降后升趋势,2000-2014年由0.564降至0.422,2014-2017年由0.422升至0.440,呈东部、中部、西部递减的空间分布特征;(2)研究期内中国3E系统耦合协调度由0.483升至0.672,三大区域差异明显,呈由东部沿海地区向周边省份发展的时空规律;(3)预测结果表明2018-2022年各省3E系统耦合协调度均有所提升。

The inter-provincial energy efficiency of China from 2000 to 2017 was calculated by Super-SBM model,a comprehensive evaluation system of energy use-economic development-environmental protection(3 E)system was constructed,and then the spatial distribution and dynamic evolution trend of China’s 3 E system coupling coordination degree were analyzed by using the coefficient of variation method,ternary coupling coordination model and gray GM(1,1)prediction model.The results showed that:(1)during the research period,the overall energy efficiency decreased first and then increased,which decreased from 0.564 to 0.422 in 2000-2014,and increased from0.422 to 0.440 in 2014-2017,showing a decreasing spatial distribution from the eastern region,central region to western region;(2)The coupling coordination degree of China’s 3 Esystem increased from 0.483 to 0.672 during2000-2017,there were significant differences among the three regions,showing the temporal and spatial pattern of development from the eastern coastal areas to the surrounding provinces;(3)The forecasting result showed that the coupling coordination degree of 3 Esystem would be improved in all provinces from 2018 to 2022.