人民币实际汇率对中美出口贸易产品技术结构的影响

The Impact of RMB Actual Rate on the Technical Structure of Sino-US Export Trade Products

根据商品名称和编码协调制度的分类,并根据拉尔(2000)[1]的方法,基于2005年第一季度至2017年第四季度的数据,利用VAR模型研究了双边实际汇率对中美出口贸易结构的影响。实证结果表明,中美双边实际汇率与中美出口贸易产品结构之间存在较强的格兰杰因果关系,前者是后者的格兰杰原因。在短期内,中美之间实际汇率的升值(贬值)不利于(有利于)贸易结构的改善,长期以来一直不利于(有利于)贸易结构的改善。

According to the classification of the commodity name and coding coordination system,and the method of Lar(2000),based on the data from the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2017,the VAR model was used to study the impact of bilateral actual rates on the Sino-US export trade structure.The empirical results show that there is a strong Granger causality between the Sino-US bilateral actual rate and the Sino-US export trade product structure,the former being the latter's Granger cause.In the short term,the appreciation(depreciation)of the actual rate between China and the United States is not conducive to(improving)the improvement of the trade structure,and has long been detrimental to(improving)the improvement of the trade structure.