摘要
2020年一季度我国债券市场共有18家发行人的44只债券发生实质性违约,涉及违约金额474.11亿元。违约发行人的区域分布和行业分布均较为分散,未表现出明显的地域或行业集中风险,所有制结构仍以民营企业为主。从评级角度看,违约债券的初始评级均较高,以AA+为主,首次评级下调及最终评级时间大都发生于违约日前一个月以上,说明评级机构能够在违约前向投资者提供有效的风险警示。受疫情以及新证券法实施的影响,预计未来债券违约数量将呈现出增长态势,且受疫情影响较大的行业和民营企业将是信用风险的主要爆发点。
In the first quarter of 2020,a total of 44 bonds of 18 issuers in China’s bond market experienced substantial defaults involving a total amount of 47.411 billion yuan.The regional distribution and industry distribution of the default issuers are relatively scattered,and there is no obvious regional or industry concentration risk.The ownership structure is still dominated by private enterprises.From the rating point of view,the initial ratings of default bonds are relatively high,mainly AA+,and the first downgrade and final rating time mostly occur more than one month before the default date,indicating that the rating agency can provide investors with effective risk warnings before the default.Affected by the epidemic situation and the implementation of the new securities law,it is expected that the number of bond defaults will show a growth trend in the future,and the industries and private enterprises that are more affected by the epidemic situation will be the main explosion points of credit risk.
出处
《金融市场研究》
2020年第5期22-30,共9页
Financial Market Research
关键词
债券违约
债券评级
新证券法
Bond Default
Bond Rating
New Securities Law