国际石油价格波动对宏观经济冲击影响研究

A Study on the Impact of International Oil Price Fluctuation on Macro-economy

近年来,国际石油价格走势的不确定性增加,引发了广泛关注。本文基于考虑汇率目标的货币政策规则的动态随机一般均衡模型,引入了国际石油价格的不确定性冲击,以反映石油价格变动对国内宏观经济变量的作用效果。研究发现:第一,国际石油价格上涨会对经济带来影响,提高了企业生产成本和通货膨胀,降低了国内产出和投资。而国际油价大跌则会造成通货紧缩,从而对国内产出和投资造成负面影响。第二,国际油价不确定对国内经济的影响和油价冲击的作用方向一致,从而延缓了经济恢复稳态的速度。第三,注重通胀目标的货币政策会降低宏观经济变量的波动率,加快变量回归稳态的速度,降低通胀率。基于以上结论本文提出了相应的政策建议。

Based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of monetary policy rules considering exchange rate target, this paper introduces the Uncertainty Impact of international oil price to reflect the effect of oil price change on domestic macroeconomic variables. The results show that: first, the rise of international oil price will have an impact on the economy,increase the production costs and inflation of enterprises, and reduce domestic output and investment. A sharp drop in international oil prices will lead to deflation, which will have a negative impact on domestic output and investment. Second, the impact of international oil price uncertainty on domestic economy is consistent with that of oil price shock, thus delaying the speed of economic recovery. Third, monetary policy focusing on inflation target will reduce the volatility of macroeconomic variables,accelerate the speed of variable return to steady state, and reduce inflation rate. Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.