我国实行农业巨灾风险债券设计及其定价研究--基于黑龙江省大豆种植风险的模拟测算

Study on the design and pricing of agricultural catastrophe risk bonds in my country--Simulation calculation based on soybean planting risk in Heilongjiang Province

农业巨灾风险债券作为一种新型的金融产品,可以有效化解农业巨灾风险非可保性的相关问题、分散农业巨灾风险,从实际层面为保险领域开辟一条新的途径。本研究选取1999-2018年黑龙江省大豆产量数据为样本,通过建立样条回归模型,去除大豆产量主要变化趋势,得出由于巨灾风险导致大豆产量变化的数据,进行核密度估计,确定概率密度函数,计算巨灾风险触发概率,设计一种农业巨灾风险债券。本文旨在分散黑龙江大豆种植风险,缓解保险公司在分散巨灾风险时所面临的压力,为我国提供一种可分散农业巨灾风险的创新型方式。

As a new type of financial product,agricultural catastrophe risk bonds can effectively solve the problems related to non-insurability of agricultural catastrophe risk,diversify agricultural catastrophe risk,and open up a new way for the insurance field from a practical level.In this study,the soybean production data of Heilongjiang Province from 1999 to 2018 was selected as a sample.By establishing a spline regression model,the main change trend of soybean production was removed,and the data of soybean production change due to catastrophe risk was obtained.The kernel density was estimated to determine the probability density.Function,calculate the triggering probability of catastrophe risk,and design an agricultural catastrophe risk bond.The aim is to diversify the risk of soybean cultivation in Heilongjiang,alleviate the pressure faced by insurance companies when dispersing the risks of catastrophes,and provide an innovative way for my country to disperse the risks of agricultural catastrophes.