社会融合、城镇定居意愿与流动人口家庭消费水平差异研究

A Study on the Differences of Social Integration,Urban Settlement Intention and Family Consumption Level of Floating Population

在消费驱动的经济发展模式下,流动人口是缩小城乡居民消费差异、挖掘中国居民消费潜力的重要着力点。基于国家卫健委2015年流动人口动态监测数据,运用普通最小二乘法(OLS)和倾向得分匹配法(PSM),研究社会融合背景下流动人口居留意愿对家庭消费水平差异的影响。研究发现:(1)中国57.34%的流动人口在城镇具有明确的居留意愿,家庭化迁移趋势明显;(2)流动人口居留意愿对家庭消费水平有正向显著影响,居留意愿明确的流动人口对城市居住偏好更高,相比不明确的家庭住房消费要高出30.3%;(3)在满足生活刚性需求的基础之上,居留意愿明确的流动人口消费重心逐步转向住房支出,整体上住房占总支出比重提升15.7%。研究认为,通过统筹城乡发展、深化渐进户改、建立公共住房及社会融合试点等措施,不仅可以提高流动人口居留意愿、释放消费潜力,而且利于提高城镇化率、促进经济内生性增长。

Under the consumption-driven economic development mode,floating population is an important factor to narrow the consumption difference between urban and rural residents and tap the consumption potential of Chinese residents.Based on the dynamic monitoring data of floating population collected by the national health and fitness commission in 2015,the influence of floating population’s residence intention on household consumption level difference in the context of social integration was studied by means of ordinary least square method(OLS)and propensity score matching method(PSM).This research has concluded that:(1)57.34%of the floating population in China has a clear intention of living in cities and towns,and the trend of family migration is obvious;(2)floating population’s residence intention has a significant positive impact on family consumption level;floating population with clear residence intention has a higher preference for urban residence,which is 30.3%higher than that of families with unclear residence intention;(3)on the basis of meeting the rigid demand for living,floating population with clear intention of residence gradually shifted to spend more on housing.The proportion of housing expenditure in total living cost increased by 15.7%on the whole.According to the study,measures such as striking a balance between urban and rural development,deepening the reform of household registration on a gradual basis,and establishing public housing and social integration pilot projects can not only increase floating population’s willingness to stay and release their consumption potential,but also increase urbanization rate and promote endogenous economic growth.