船舶工业与物流业耦合协调度评价及预测研究

Coordination Degree Evaluation and Prediction of Shipbuilding Industry and Logistics Industry

船舶工业和物流业属于我国十大振兴产业,两业融合发展有助于产业结构调整升级,研究两业协调发展具有重要意义.以2002-2016年我国两业的发展数据为样本,运用耦合协调度模型和ARIMA-BP模型分别研究了两业耦合协调度的变化规律和未来发展趋势.结果表明:两业耦合协调度呈现出先上升后轻微下降的变化规律,由高度失调衰退类向勉强协调发展类演化发展,预测到2020年两业耦合协调发展水平仍处于勉强协调发展状态.建议从政策层面鼓励船舶工业物流外包,物流业为船舶工业提供个性化定制服务,提高两业耦合协调发展水平.

The shipbuilding industry and logistics industry are among the top ten revitalizing industries in China.The integrated development of the two industries is conducive to the adjustment and upgrading of the industrial structure.It is of great significance to study the coordinated development of the two industries.Taking the development data of the two industries in China from 2002 to 2016 as samples,the coupling coordination degree model and the ARIMA-BP model were used to study the change law and future development trend of the coupling coordination degree of the two industries.The results show that the degree of coupling and coordination between the two industries shows a change pattern that first rises and then decreases slightly,and evolves from a highly imbalanced decline to a barely coordinated development.It is predicted that by 2020,the level of coupling and coordinated development of the two industries will still be in a state of barely coordinated development.It is recommended to encourage the outsourcing of the logistics of the shipbuilding industry from the policy level.The logistics industry provides personalized customization services for the shipbuilding industry to improve the level of coupling and coordinated development of the two industries.