第三产业对新疆县域经济发展的实证分析--基于空间面板数据模型

Empirical Analysis of Tertiary Industry on County Economic Development in Xinjiang——Spatial panel data model

新疆经济正处于新旧产业结构转型升级的重要时期,探索第三产业和地区生产总值之间的关系对新疆经济发展有着重要意义.以2010-2016年新疆83个县域单元为研究对象,利用双变量LISA模型、空间面板杜宾模型等方法,分析了第三产业对新疆经济发展的空间溢出效应.结果表明:各个县域经济发展存在着显著、稳定的空间自相关性,第三产业值的增长不但可以促进本地区经济增长,而且对邻接地区的经济增长也具有显著的空间溢出效应.

Xinjiang’s economy is in an important period of transformation and upgrading of the old and new industrial structures.It is of great significance for Xinjiang’s economic development to explore the relationship between tertiary industry and regional GDP.The spatial spillover effects of tertiary industry on Xinjiang’s economic development are analyzed by using bivariate LISA model and spatial panel Dubin model,taking 83 county units in Xinjiang from 2010 to 2016 as research objects.The results show that there is a significant and stable spatial autocorrelation in the economic development of each county.The growth of tertiary industry value can not only promote the economic growth of the region,but also have a significant spatial spillover effect on the economic growth of adjacent areas.