省级核事故应急能力评价模型的构建及应用研究

Cons t ruction and application of evaluation model for nuclear emergency response capability at provincial level

目的为了预防核事故,提升全国各省核事故应急能力,指导建立相应的评价模型。方法通过对核事故发展阶段的分析、对我国核事故应急管理组织体系的研究,遵循《国家核应急预案》的要求,基于组织、预警、保障、反应、救援、恢复、评估7个维度的分析结果,综合运用德尔菲法、临界值法、层次分析法、模糊综合评价法构建省级核事故应急能力评价模型,最后运用该模型对某省的核事故应急能力进行评价。结果该模型具有3个一级指标、7个二级指标、32个三级指标。某省核事故应急能力获得79.33分,处于“合格”等级。“核事故预警系统的运行状态”较薄弱,为74.38分,处于“临界”等级。结论该省要进一步有针对性地做好核应急预案和应急演练体系、应急预警系统、环境监测、核医学科研、公众沟通等方面的工作。该模型在核事故应急能力评价方面具有良好的适用性,根据评价结果可以有针对性地提高该省核事故应急能力。

Objective A corresponding evaluation model on nuclear emergency response capability was set up,in order to prevent nuclear accidents and improve the nuclear accident emergency response capacities in all provinces across the country.Methods An evaluation index system for the nuclear accident emergency response capability at provincial level was established by analyzing the developing stages of nuclear accident and current emergency management organization system for nuclear accident in China,based on the requirements of the National Nuclear Emergency Plan and the analysis results of the seven dimensions(organization,early warning,supply,response,rescue,recovery and assessment).On this basis,the Delphi method,the critical value method,the analytic hierarchy process,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were combined to construct a nuclear accident emergency response capability evaluation model.Finally,this model was applied to evaluate the nuclear emergency response capability in a province.Results The evaluation model consisted of 3 first-level indicators,7 second-level indicators,and 32 third-level indicators.With this model the evaluation showed that score of a province’s nuclear accident emergency response ability was 79.33 points,which was in the“qualified”level.“Operation status of nuclear accident early warning system”was the weakest point with 74.38 points in the“critical”level.Conclusion This province should further focus on emergency plan and emergency drill system,emergency early warning system,environmental monitoring,nuclear medicine research,public communication and other aspects.The results show that the model has good applicability in the evaluation of nuclear accident emergency response capability and can be applied pertinently to improve the emergency response capability of this province.