政策的“鲶鱼效应”:商业银行分支行扩张和信用卡业务竞争力

The Policy“Catfish Effect”:Expansion through Branch Establishment and Competitiveness in Chinese Credit Card Market

本文采集了来自12家大型银行,包括8家股份制商业银行、4家国有商业银行2007~2015年间的样本数据,以2009年和2011年中小银行分支行准入政策的变化为工具变量,探讨银行实体机构的地理扩张在银行信用卡业务非价格竞争中的作用。在银行分支行扩张的层面上,我们发现政府对中小银行分支结构市场准入的监管政策的放松(2009年)和回调(2011年)的接续政策对中国的大型商业银行具有短期的竞争挤出效应和长期的“鲶鱼效应”,即对中小银行跨区经营准入的放松(2009年)会加大大型银行扩张的难度(竞争挤出效应),然而一旦对该放松政策进行回调(2011年),在前一个政策带来的已有的竞争作用下,大型银行会持续加速分支行的扩张(“鲶鱼效应”)。我们同时发现,中国商业银行分支行机构的地理扩张对本银行信用卡发行(广义边际)和信用卡使用(集约边际)都有显著的正向影响。

Based on the data from 12 large Chinese commercial banks from 2007 to 2015,including 8 joint-stock banks and 4 state-owned banks,we adopt a set of instrumental variables designed on the branch banking deregulation in 2009 and re-regulation in 2011 on small and medium-sized banks to identify how banks enhance their competitiveness by establishing new branches.The results show that the 2009 branch banking deregulation has a pro-competitive crowing-out effect on large Chinese banks in our sample;meanwhile,the re-regulation afterward transfers the negative pro-competitive effect into a much bigger positive“catfish effect.”That is,the branch banking deregulation of small and medium-sized banks makes it more difficult for large banks to build up new branches,once there is a tight re-regulation on small and medium-sized banks,large banks continue to accelerate their branch expansion owing to the lasting influence from the previous deregulation.And further,we find that the geographical expansion by establishing branches of Chinese commercial banks significantly increases their shares in the credit card market both extensively(new card issuance)and intensively(credit card loans).