新型城镇化对产业结构调整的影响及作用路径——基于中介效应的实证分析

Impacts and Function Route of New-type Urbanization on Industrial Restructuring in China:Based on the Mediating Effect Method

利用2005—2016年我国省际面板数据,构建动态面板模型,并结合中介效应模型检验新型城镇化对产业结构调整的直接影响和中介效应。结果显示:(1)新型城镇化促进了产业结构高级化和制造业内部变化,但对产业结构合理化和服务业内部变化存在抑制作用;(2)新型城镇化能够通过提升技术创新水平、增加人力资本水平和提升城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入路径影响产业结构合理化、产业结构高级化及制造业内部变化,但人力资本水平的影响有限;(3)新型城镇化只能够通过提升技术创新水平间接影响服务业内部变化。

Based on the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2016 in our country,we construct a dynamic panel model and use the mediation effect model to test the direct and mediating effects of new-type urbanization on industrial restructuring.The results show that(1)new urbanization promotes advanced industrial structure and changes within the manufacturing industry,but inhibits rationalization of the industrial structure and changes within the service industry.(2)New urbanization influences the rationalization and advancement of industrial structure and internal changes in the manufacturing industry by raising the level of technological innovation,increasing human capital and raising the per capita disposable income of urban households,but the influence of the level of human capital at this stage is limited.(3)The new urbanization can only indirectly affect changes within the service sector indirectly by improving the level of technological innovation.