房地产调控条件下货币政策的资产价格传导效应——基于35个大中城市的实证分析

Asset price transmission effect of monetary policy under real estate regulation——An empirical analysis based on 35 large-and-medium-sized cities

宏观调控政策会通过不同的传导渠道对实体经济产生影响,随着房地产经济的蓬勃发展,资产价格传导渠道在宏观调控政策中的作用越来越大。以房地产经济为落脚点,基于35个大中城市2009年~2019年的月度面板数据,探究货币政策、房地产调控政策通过资产价格传导效应对经济的影响。结果显示:对大中城市而言,宽松的货币政策对房地产价格具有促进作用;限贷政策抑制房价的作用显著,而限购政策的效果不明显;货币政策传导至实体经济的效果对处于限贷政策下的城市影响更小,表明限贷住房政策会抑制货币政策的效果;房地产价格对实体经济具有滞后的促进作用,主要是通过托宾Q效应、资产负债表效应和财富效应传导到实体经济。

Macro-control policies will have an impact on the real economy through different transmission channels. With the rapid development of real estate and other economies, asset price transmission channels have played an increasingly important role in macro-control policies. Taking the real estate economy as the foothold,based on the monthly panel data of 35 large-and-medium-sized cities from 2009 to 2019, this paper explores the impact of monetary policy and real estate regulation and control policies on the economy through the asset price transmission effect. The results show that: for large-and-medium-sized cities, the loose monetary policy can promote the real estate prices;the loan restriction policy has a significant effect on curbing housing prices,while the effect of the purchase?restriction policy?is not obvious;the effect of monetary policy transmission to the real economy has less impact on the cities under the loan restrictionpolicy, which indicates that the loan-restricted housing policy will restrain the effect of monetary policy;the real estate prices have a lagging promotion effect on the real economy, which is mainly transmitted to the real economy through Tobin Q effect, balance sheet effect and wealth effect.