中国与东北亚区域贸易潜力的随机前沿分析

Stochastic frontier analysis of regional trade potential between China and Northeast Asia

东北亚区域贸易潜力巨大,但受历史、政治等因素影响,区域经贸合作差强人意。通过选取2003年~2018年数据,在研究中国与东北亚区域贸易关系的基础上,运用非效率随机前沿引力模型分析了中国对东北亚区域的贸易效率和贸易潜力。结果显示:中韩、中日贸易竞争性较高;中俄、中蒙贸易竞争性较弱;中蒙贸易效率较低,潜力较大;中日、中韩和中俄贸易效率较高,存在一定的贸易空间。由此提出加快签订自由贸易协定、提高政府效率和改善基础设施建设的建议。

Regional trade in Northeast Asia has great potential, but due to historical and political factors, regional economic and trade cooperation is unsatisfactory. Based on the data from 2003 to 2018 and the measurement of the regional trade relationship between China and Northeast Asia, this paper analyzes China’s trade efficiency and trade potential to Northeast Asia by using the non-efficient stochastic frontier gravity model.The results show that China-South Korea trade and China-Japan trade are highly competitive;China-Russia trade and China-Mongolia trade are less competitive;China-Mongolia trade is less efficient and has greater potential;China-Japan trade, China-Korea trade and China-Russia trade are more efficient with certain trade space.Therefore, proposals are put forward to speed up the signing of free trade agreements, improve government efficiency and infrastructure construction.