改革开放以来湖北省人口空间演变趋势研究

Study on the spatial evolution trend of population in Hubei province since the period of reform and opening up

运用人口重心法和灰色系统模型,展开对湖北省40年来人口空间演变规律的分析,并在此基础上预测到2035年的人口变化趋势。结果表明,①计划生育和市场经济等国家政策是改革开放以来影响湖北省人口空间演变的最主要因素;②在2035年以前,湖北省处于城镇化中期阶段,人口仍然向城市地区集聚,城镇化还将保持高速发展,乡村振兴战略在这一时期很难带来明显的乡村人口回流;③改革开放以来,湖北省人口重心在持续向武汉方向移动,甚至到2035年,武汉将仍然保持对全省人口的强大吸引力,只是武汉中心城区的吸引力减弱,郊区人口增长将超过中心城区。结果②和结果③进一步佐证了城镇化的一般规律。

The spatial evolution law of the population in Hubei province in the past 40 years is analyzed by using the population gravity center method and the gray system model,and base on this,the population trend in the next decades to 2035 is predicted. The results show that,firstly,national policies such as family planning and market economy are the most important factors affecting the evolution of population spatial in Hubei province since the reform and opening up;secondly,Hubei province would have been in the middle stage of urbanization before 2035 with the population gathering to urban areas and urbanization still maintaining rapid development,so rural revitalization strategy is difficult to bring obvious rural population return during this period;thirdly,since the reform and opening up,the population center of gravity in Hubei province is shifting towards Wuhan,and even by 2035,Wuhan will still maintain a strong attraction to the population of the whole province,but the attractiveness of Wuhan’s central urban area will be weakened,and the population growth in the suburbs will exceed that in the central urban area. The second and third conclusions further confirm the general law of urbanization.