城市扩张、土地财政与农村剩余劳动力转移——来自中国281个地级市的经验证据

Urban Expansion,Land Finance and Rural Surplus Labor Transfer—Evidence from the Panel Data of 281 Prefecture-level Cities in China

本文系统分析城市扩张、土地财政依赖对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响机制,并针对中国281个城市的面板数据,综合运用GMM估计和面板门槛效应模型,考察城市扩张和土地财政依赖对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响效应。结果显示:城市扩张对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响主要呈现推动作用,且可能表现出倒U型趋势。以公共服务供给水平和工资水平作为门槛变量,城市扩张对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响存在门槛效应;土地财政依赖则不利于农村剩余劳动力转移,且城市扩张与土地财政依赖对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响存在异质性。同时,城市扩张与土地财政依赖的交互项系数显著为正,表明在与土地财政互动的过程中,城市扩张推动农村剩余劳动力转移的效用被不断削弱。

Using the panel data of 281 cities in China and the panel data analysis method,this paper examines the impact and mechanism of urban expansion and land financial dependence on rural surplus labor transfer.The results are shown as follows.Firstly,the impact of urban expansion on the transfer of rural surplus labor mainly shows the promote role and presents an inverted U-shaped trend.With the public service supply and the wage as threshold variables,the impact of urban expansion on the transfer of rural surplus labor has a threshold effect.Secondly,land financial dependence is not conducive to the transfer of rural surplus labor,and the influence of urban expansion and land financial dependence on the transfer of rural surplus labor force is heterogeneous.Thirdly,the interaction coefficient between urban expansion and land financial dependence is significantly positive,which indicates that the intensity of the impact of urban expansion on the rural surplus labor transfer will be affected by the land financial dependence.