高铁时代的城市经济增长路径与效益机制研究

Research on Urban Economic Growth Path and Benefit Mechanism in the Era of High-speed Rail

本文基于综合的分析框架,探讨高铁对城市经济增长的影响及内在机制,并在不同规模城市之间进行比较;使用列车数作为城市高铁建设与运营水平的指标具体考察两种连接方式的不同影响,结合随机森林方法和样本划分进行了机制验证。结果显示,高铁的城市经济效益主要是一种间接影响,作用路径的不同解释了高铁对不同规模城市影响程度的差异性;随着城市规模的扩大,高铁在提高服务业生产效率和促进产业升级方面作用显著,而对于规模较小的城市,高铁的影响主要在于加速产业结构调整;从连接方式看,外向型交通网络的发展能够从多个方面提升大城市的经济绩效,而与邻近城市联系的加强对于中、小城市的发展显示出了积极的影响。

This paper studies the effect of high-speed rail(HSR on urban economic growth and the differences among cities of different sizes under a unified framework,using the number of high-speed trains to represent the construction and the operation level of urban high-speed rail.Considering the non-linear relationship between transportation infrastructure and economic growth and the preliminary analysis,this study uses the random forest method to evaluate the economic effectiveness and verify the mechanism of HSR.The empirical results show that all cities could benefit from HSR connections,but the economic benefits of HSR is mainly an indirect effect,explaining different paths vary the effect of HSR among cities.With the expansion of the city scale,high-speed rail plays a significant role in improving the efficiency of service industry production and promoting industrial upgrading;for smaller cities,the impact of HSR is mainly to accelerate the adjustment of industrial structure.Moreover,from the perspective of connection methods,the export-oriented transportation network development can improve the economic performance of the city in many ways,and the strengthening of connections with neighboring cities has a positive impact on the development of small and medium-sized cities.